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Malthus in cointegration space: evidence of a post-Malthusian pre-industrial England

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  • Niels Møller

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  • Paul Sharp

Abstract

This paper re-examines the interaction between population growth and income per capita in pre-industrial England. Our results suggest that, as early as two centuries preceding the Industrial Revolution, England had already escaped the Malthusian Epoch and entered a post-Malthusian regime, where income per capita continued to spur population growth but was no longer stagnant. Our formulation of a post-Malthusian hypothesis implies cointegration between vital rates (birth- and death rates) and income and builds explicitly on a simple model of Malthusian stagnation. We show that this hypothesis can be interpreted as an extension of the latter model where the negative Malthusian feedback effect from population on income, as implied by diminishing returns to labor, is offset by a positive Boserupian and/or Smithian scale effect of population on technology. Copyright Springer Science+Business Media New York 2014

Suggested Citation

  • Niels Møller & Paul Sharp, 2014. "Malthus in cointegration space: evidence of a post-Malthusian pre-industrial England," Journal of Economic Growth, Springer, vol. 19(1), pages 105-140, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:jecgro:v:19:y:2014:i:1:p:105-140
    DOI: 10.1007/s10887-013-9094-0
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Marc Klemp & Niels Framroze Møller, 2016. "Post-Malthusian Dynamics in Pre-Industrial Scandinavia," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 118(4), pages 841-867, October.
    2. Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano, 2014. "Urbanization and Growth: Why Did the Splendor of the Italian Cities in the Sixteenth Century not Lead to Transition?," CESifo Working Paper Series 5038, CESifo Group Munich.
    3. repec:wly:econjl:v:127:y:2017:i:599:p:50-83 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Groth, Christian & Persson, Karl Gunnar, 2016. "Growth or stagnation in pre-industrial Britain? A revealed income growth approach," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 264, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
    5. Nina Boberg‐Fazlić & Paul Sharp, 2017. "Does Welfare Spending Crowd Out Charitable Activity? Evidence from Historical England Under the Poor Laws," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 127(599), pages 50-83, February.
    6. Niels Framroze Møller, 2013. "Understanding Unemployment Hysteresis: A system-based econometric approach to changing equilibria and slow adjustment," Discussion Papers 13-06, University of Copenhagen. Department of Economics.
    7. Ho, Chi Pui, 2016. "Industrious Selection: Explaining Five Revolutions and Two Divergences in Eurasian Economic History within a Unified Growth Framework," MPRA Paper 73862, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    8. Møller, Niels Framroze, 2015. "Energy Demand, Substitution and a Potential for Electrification: An econometric analysis of eight Danish subsectors," MPRA Paper 69931, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    9. Lüger, Tim, 2018. "A VAR evaluation of classical growth theory," Darmstadt Discussion Papers in Economics 231, Darmstadt University of Technology, Department of Law and Economics.
    10. repec:spr:cliomt:v:11:y:2017:i:2:d:10.1007_s11698-016-0144-7 is not listed on IDEAS

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