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Unit root tests for time series with outliers

  • Shin, Dong Wan
  • Sarkar, Sahadeb
  • Lee, Jong Hyup
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    Effects of additive and innovational outliers on unit root tests in ARIMA(p, 1, q) models are investigated. The limiting distribution of the ordinary least-squares estimator of the unit root parameter in the AR(1) model is affected by additive outliers but is unaffected by innovational outliers. To test for a unit root in ARIMA(p, 1, q) models in the presence of outliers, a very simple, easy-to-compute procedure is given that detects additive outliers and adjusts the observations accordingly. The detection method performed well in our numerical experiment. Our unit root tests based on the adjusted data are shown to have very good empirical sizes and powers in AR(1), AR(2) and ARMA(1, 1) models.

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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Statistics & Probability Letters.

    Volume (Year): 30 (1996)
    Issue (Month): 3 (October)
    Pages: 189-197

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:stapro:v:30:y:1996:i:3:p:189-197
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    1. Franses, Philip Hans & Haldrup, Niels, 1994. "The Effects of Additive Outliers on Tests for Unit Roots and Cointegration," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 12(4), pages 471-78, October.
    2. Chen, Chung & Tiao, George C, 1990. "Random Level-Shift Time Series Models, ARIMA Approximations, and Level-Shift Detection," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(1), pages 83-97, January.
    3. Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean: Corrections and Extensions," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 467-70, October.
    4. Peter C.B. Phillips, 1985. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 740R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Feb 1986.
    5. Nelson, Charles R. & Plosser, Charles I., 1982. "Trends and random walks in macroeconmic time series : Some evidence and implications," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 10(2), pages 139-162.
    6. Shin, Dong Wan & Sarkar, Sahadeb, 1994. "Unit root tests for ARIMA(0, 1, q) models with irregularly observed samples," Statistics & Probability Letters, Elsevier, vol. 19(3), pages 189-194, February.
    7. Perron, Pierre, 1990. "Testing for a Unit Root in a Time Series with a Changing Mean," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 8(2), pages 153-62, April.
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