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Large shocks in U.S. macroeconomic time series: 1860-1988

Author

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  • Olivier Darné

    (LEMNA, IEMN–IAE, University of Nantes, Chemin de la Censive du Tertre, BP 52231, 44322 Nantes, France)

  • Amélie Charles

    (School of Management, Audencia Nantes, 8 route de la Jonelière, 44312 Nantes, France)

Abstract

In this paper, we examine the large shocks due to major economic or financial events that affected U.S. macroeconomic time series on the period 1860–1988, using outlier methodology. We show that most of these shocks have a temporary effect, showing that the U.S. macroeconomic time series experienced only few large permanent shifts in the long term. Most of these large shocks can be explained by major recessions and World War II as well as by monetary policy for the interest rate data. We also find that some economic events seem to have the same effect (immediate, transitory or permanent) on a number of macroeconomic series. Finally, we show that most macroeconomic time series do not seem inconsistent with a stochastic trend once we adjusted the data for these shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Olivier Darné & Amélie Charles, 2011. "Large shocks in U.S. macroeconomic time series: 1860-1988," Cliometrica, Journal of Historical Economics and Econometric History, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC), vol. 5(1), pages 79-100, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:afc:cliome:v:5:y:2011:i:1:p:79-100
    DOI: 10.1007/s11698-010-0052-1
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    Cited by:

    1. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2012. "Trends and random walks in macroeconomic time series: A reappraisal," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 167-180.
    2. Charles, Amélie & Darné, Olivier, 2014. "Large shocks in the volatility of the Dow Jones Industrial Average index: 1928–2013," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 43(C), pages 188-199.
    3. Claude Diebolt & Karine Pellier, 2018. "Patents in the Long Run: Theory, History and Statistics," Working Papers 03-18, Association Française de Cliométrie (AFC).
    4. Vides, José Carlos & Golpe, Antonio A. & Iglesias, Jesús, 2021. "The impact of the term spread in US monetary policy from 1870 to 2013," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 230-251.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C22 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes
    • N1 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations

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