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The Yield Curve, Recession and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: long run evidence 1875-1997

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  • Michael Bordo
  • Joseph Haubrich

Abstract

Most work showing the yield curve predicts future economic growth relies on post WWII data. We demonstrate that the yield curve has predictive content for most of the post Civil War period. This predictive ability, however, is closely related to the credibility of the monetary regime in place, something we measure by the persistence of inflation

Suggested Citation

  • Michael Bordo & Joseph Haubrich, 2004. "The Yield Curve, Recession and the Credibility of the Monetary Regime: long run evidence 1875-1997," Econometric Society 2004 North American Summer Meetings 165, Econometric Society.
    • Handle: RePEc:ecm:nasm04:165
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Yield Curve; Monetary Regime; credibility;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects
    • E42 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Monetary Sytsems; Standards; Regimes; Government and the Monetary System
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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