Predicting real growth using the yield curve
A study using out-of-sample regressions to determine how well the 10-year, 3-month yield spread predicts future real GDP growth. The author finds that although the yield curve is a good predictor over the entire 30-year sample period, it has become much less accurate over the last decade.
Volume (Year): (1996)
Issue (Month): Q I ()
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References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991.
" The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-76, June.
- Arturo Estrella & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1989. "The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity," Research Paper 8907, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Cara S. Lown, 1994.
"An Indicator of Future Inflation Extracted from the Steepness of the Interest Rate Yield Curve Along Its Entire Length,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 109(2), pages 517-530.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Cara S. Lown, 1991. "An Indicator of Future Inflation Extracted From the Steepness of the Interest Rate Yield Curve Along Its Entire Length," NBER Working Papers 3751, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jeffrey A. Frankel & Cara S. Lown, 1991. "An indicator of future inflation extracted from the steepness of the interest rate yield curve along its entire length," Research Paper 9122, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
- John Y. Campbell, 1995.
"Some Lessons from the Yield Curve,"
NBER Working Papers
5031, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Campbell, John, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," Scholarly Articles 3163264, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1713, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
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