IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedcer/y1996iqip26-35.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Predicting real growth using the yield curve

Author

Listed:
  • Ann M. Dombrosky
  • Joseph G. Haubrich

Abstract

A study using out-of-sample regressions to determine how well the 10-year, 3-month yield spread predicts future real GDP growth. The author finds that although the yield curve is a good predictor over the entire 30-year sample period, it has become much less accurate over the last decade.

Suggested Citation

  • Ann M. Dombrosky & Joseph G. Haubrich, 1996. "Predicting real growth using the yield curve," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Q I, pages 26-35.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcer:y:1996:i:qi:p:26-35
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.clevelandfed.org/Research/Review/1996/96-q1-haubrich.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/scribd/?toc_id=354665&filepath=/docs/publications/frbclevreview/rev_frbclev_1996q1.pdf&start_page=27#scribd-open
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. John Y. Campbell, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 9(3), pages 129-152, Summer.
    2. Jeffrey A. Frankel & Cara S. Lown, 1994. "An Indicator of Future Inflation Extracted from the Steepness of the Interest Rate Yield Curve Along Its Entire Length," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 109(2), pages 517-530.
    3. Estrella, Arturo & Hardouvelis, Gikas A, 1991. "The Term Structure as a Predictor of Real Economic Activity," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 46(2), pages 555-576, June.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Modena, Matteo, 2008. "The term structure and the expectations hypothesis: a threshold model," MPRA Paper 9611, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Ravenna, Federico & Seppälä, Juha, 2006. "Monetary policy and rejections of the expectations hypothesis," Research Discussion Papers 25/2006, Bank of Finland.
    3. Fida Hussain & Asif Mahmood, 2017. "Predicting Output Growth and Inflation in Pakistan: The Role of Yield Spread," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 13, pages 53-76.
    4. Vides, José Carlos & Golpe, Antonio A. & Iglesias, Jesús, 2021. "The impact of the term spread in US monetary policy from 1870 to 2013," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 230-251.
    5. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2006_025 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Seppala, Juha, 2004. "The term structure of real interest rates: theory and evidence from UK index-linked bonds," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(7), pages 1509-1549, October.
    7. Hamilton, James D & Kim, Dong Heon, 2002. "A Reexamination of the Predictability of Economic Activity Using the Yield Spread," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 34(2), pages 340-360, May.
    8. Patrick Artus & Moncef Kaabi, 1994. "Structure par terme des taux d'intérêt et reprise économique," Économie et Prévision, Programme National Persée, vol. 112(1), pages 87-99.
    9. Siklos, Pierre L, 2000. "Inflation Targets and the Yield Curve: New Zealand and Australia versus the US," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 5(1), pages 15-32, February.
    10. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2000_022 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. James H. Stock & Mark W.Watson, 2003. "Forecasting Output and Inflation: The Role of Asset Prices," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 41(3), pages 788-829, September.
    12. repec:adr:anecst:y:1999:i:54:p:02 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Cochrane, John H., 2005. "Financial Markets and the Real Economy," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(1), pages 1-101, July.
    14. John Kambhu & Patricia C. Mosser, 2001. "The effect of interest rate options hedging on term-structure dynamics," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Dec, pages 51-70.
    15. Seppälä, Juha, 2000. "The term structure of real interest rates : Theory and evidence form UK index-linked bonds," Research Discussion Papers 22/2000, Bank of Finland.
    16. McMillan, David G., 2009. "Forward interest rate premium and asymmetric adjustment: Evidence from 16 countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 258-273, April.
    17. Georges Prat & Remzi Uctum, 2016. "Do markets learn to rationally expect US interest rates? Evidence from survey data," Post-Print hal-01411824, HAL.
    18. Enzo Weber & Jürgen Wolters, 2013. "Risk and Policy Shocks on the US Term Structure," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 60(1), pages 101-119, February.
    19. Joseph Atta-Mensah & Greg Tkacz, 1998. "Predicting Canadian Recessions Using Financial Variables: A Probit Approach," Staff Working Papers 98-5, Bank of Canada.
    20. Catherine Bruneau & Eric Jondeau, 1999. "Causalité de long terme et amélioration de la prévision : application aux courbes de taux d'intérêt," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 54, pages 23-45.
    21. Sharon Kozicki, 1997. "Predicting real growth and inflation with the yield spread," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, vol. 82(Q IV), pages 39-57.
    22. Gong, Fangxiong & Remolona, Eli M, 1997. "Two Factors along the Yield Curve," The Manchester School of Economic & Social Studies, University of Manchester, vol. 65(0), pages 1-31, Supplemen.
    23. Kuo, Shew-Huei, 2000. "An examination of the evolving relationship between interest rates of different maturities in Japan, and test of the expectations hypothesis of the term structure to ascertain the feasibility of using," ISU General Staff Papers 2000010108000014910, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedcer:y:1996:i:qi:p:26-35. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: 4D Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbclus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.