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The effect of interest rate options hedging on term-structure dynamics

  • John Kambhu
  • Patricia C. Mosser
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    Market participants and policymakers closely monitor movements in the yield curve for information about future economic fundamentals. In several recent episodes, however, disruptions to market liquidity have affected the short-term dynamics of the curve independently of fundamentals. This article provides evidence that the short-run dynamics in the intermediate maturities of the yield curve changed around 1990, with the appearance of positive feedback in weekly interest rate changes. The feedback is consistent with the effects of options dealers’ hedging activity and it is found only in the 1990s, after the interest rate options market grew to significant size. The authors also show that the market liquidity/positive-feedback effects are concentrated in the weeks after the largest interest rate changes. Their results suggest that the times when market participants and policymakers are most interested in extracting from the yield curve a signal about economic fundamentals are precisely the times when changes in the curve may be distorted by liquidity effects.

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    Article provided by Federal Reserve Bank of New York in its journal Economic Policy Review.

    Volume (Year): (2001)
    Issue (Month): Dec ()
    Pages: 51-70

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    Handle: RePEc:fip:fednep:y:2001:i:dec:p:51-70:n:v.7no.3
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    1. Sanford J. Grossman, 1989. "An Analysis of the Implications for Stock and Futures Price Volatility of Program Trading and Dynamic Hedging Strategies," NBER Working Papers 2357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. James H. Stock & Mark W. Watson, 1989. "New Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 1989, Volume 4, pages 351-409 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    3. Arturo Estrella & Gikas A. Hardouvelis, 1989. "The term structure as a predictor of real economic activity," Research Paper 8907, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    4. John Y. Campbell, 1995. "Some Lessons from the Yield Curve," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1713, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    5. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
    6. Gerard Gennotte and Hayne Leland., 1989. "Market Liquidity, Hedging and Crashes," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-192, University of California at Berkeley.
    7. Laura E. Kodres, 1994. "The existence and impact of destabilizing positive feedback traders: evidence from the S&P 500 Index futures market," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 94-9, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Toft, Klaus Bjerre, 1996. "On the Mean-Variance Tradeoff in Option Replication with Transactions Costs," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 31(02), pages 233-263, June.
    9. Michael J. Fleming, 2000. "The benchmark U.S. Treasury market: recent performance and possible alternatives," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Apr, pages 129-145.
    10. J. Bradford De Long & Andrei Shleifer & Lawrence H. Summers & Robert J. Waldmann, 1989. "Positive Feedback Investment Strategies and Destabilizing Rational Speculation," NBER Working Papers 2880, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Longstaff, Francis A, 2001. "Optimal Portfolio Choice and the Valuation of Illiquid Securities," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 407-31.
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