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Adaptive Expectations and Stock Market Crashes

  • Frankel, David M.
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    A theory is developed that explains how stocks can crash without fundamental news and why crashes are more common than frenzies. A crash occurs via the interaction of rational and naive investors. Naive traders believe that prices follow a random walk with serially correlated volatility. Their expectations of future volatility are formed adaptively. When the market crashes, naive traders sell stock in response to the apparent increase in volatility. Since rational traders are risk averse as well, a lower price is needed to clear the market: the crash is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Frenzies cannot occur in this model.

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    File URL: http://econ2.econ.iastate.edu/faculty/frankel/crashrt14.pdf
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    Paper provided by Iowa State University, Department of Economics in its series Staff General Research Papers with number 31688.

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    Date of creation: 01 May 2008
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    Publication status: Published in International Economic Review, May 2008, vol. 49 no. 2, pp. 595-619
    Handle: RePEc:isu:genres:31688
    Contact details of provider: Postal: Iowa State University, Dept. of Economics, 260 Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070
    Phone: +1 515.294.6741
    Fax: +1 515.294.0221
    Web page: http://www.econ.iastate.edu
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    1. Caplin, A. & Leahy, J., 1992. "Business as Usual, Market Crashes, and Wisdom after the Fact," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1594, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
    2. French, Kenneth R. & Schwert, G. William & Stambaugh, Robert F., 1987. "Expected stock returns and volatility," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 19(1), pages 3-29, September.
    3. Gadi Barlevy & Pietro Veronesi, 2000. "Rational Panics and Stock Market Crashes," CRSP working papers 483, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
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    5. Grether, David M., . "Bayes Rule as a Descriptive Model: The Representativeness Heuristic," Working Papers 245, California Institute of Technology, Division of the Humanities and Social Sciences.
    6. Pindyck, Robert S., 1983. "Risk, inflation, and the stock market," Working papers 1423-83., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
    7. Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
    8. Chou, Ray Yeutien, 1988. "Volatility Persistence and Stock Valuations: Some Empirical Evidence Using Garch," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 3(4), pages 279-94, October-D.
    9. Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Rubinstein, Mark, 1996. " Recovering Probability Distributions from Option Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(5), pages 1611-32, December.
    10. Robert J. Shiller, 1998. "Human Behavior and the Efficiency of the Financial System," NBER Working Papers 6375, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Benoit Mandelbrot, 1963. "The Variation of Certain Speculative Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 36, pages 394.
    12. Harrison Hong & Jeremy C. Stein, 2003. "Differences of Opinion, Short-Sales Constraints, and Market Crashes," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 487-525.
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