Adaptive Expectations and Stock Market Crashes
A theory is developed that explains how stocks can crash without fundamental news and why crashes are more common than frenzies. A crash occurs via the interaction of rational and naive investors. Naive traders believe that prices follow a random walk with serially correlated volatility. Their expectations of future volatility are formed adaptively. When the market crashes, naive traders sell stock in response to the apparent increase in volatility. Since rational traders are risk averse as well, a lower price is needed to clear the market: the crash is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Frenzies cannot occur in this model.
|Date of creation:||01 May 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Publication status:||Published in International Economic Review, May 2008, vol. 49 no. 2, pp. 595-619|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Iowa State University, Dept. of Economics, 260 Heady Hall, Ames, IA 50011-1070|
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