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Adaptive Expectations And Stock Market Crashes

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  • David M. Frankel

Abstract

A theory is developed that explains how stocks can crash without fundamental news and why crashes are more common than frenzies. A crash occurs via the interaction of rational and naive investors. Naive traders believe that prices follow a random walk with serially correlated volatility. Their expectations of future volatility are formed adaptively. When the market crashes, naive traders sell stock in response to the apparent increase in volatility. Since rational traders are risk averse as well, a lower price is needed to clear the market: The crash is a self-fulfilling prophecy. Frenzies cannot occur in this model. Copyright ©2008 by the Economics Department Of The University Of Pennsylvania And Osaka University Institute Of Social And Economic Research Association.

Suggested Citation

  • David M. Frankel, 2008. "Adaptive Expectations And Stock Market Crashes," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 49(2), pages 595-619, May.
    • Handle: RePEc:ier:iecrev:v:49:y:2008:i:2:p:595-619
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    Cited by:

    1. Chen, Ka-Hin & Lai, Tze Leung & Liu, Qingfu & Wang, Chuanjie, 2022. "Beyond the blockchain announcement: Signaling credibility and market reaction," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    2. Vogel, Harold L. & Werner, Richard A., 2015. "An analytical review of volatility metrics for bubbles and crashes," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 15-28.
    3. Nikolaos Antonakakis & Johann Scharler, 2012. "Volatility Information And Stock Market Crashes," Journal of Advanced Studies in Finance, ASERS Publishing, vol. 3(1), pages 49-57.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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