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Volatility Information And Stock Market Crashes

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  • Nikolaos Antonakakis

  • Johann Scharler

Abstract

In this paper we examine the evolution of the SP500 returns volatility around market crashes using a Markov Switching model We find that volatility typically switches into the high volatility state well before a crash and remains in the high state for a considerable period of time after the crash These results do not support the view that crashes are due to the resolution of uncertainty e g Romer 1993 but are consistent with the model in Frankel 2008 where the adaptive forecasts of volatility by uniformed traders result in a crash

Suggested Citation

  • Nikolaos Antonakakis & Johann Scharler, 2012. "Volatility Information And Stock Market Crashes," Journal of Advanced Studies in Finance, ASERS Publishing, vol. 3(1), pages 49-57.
  • Handle: RePEc:srs:jasf00:v:3:y:2012:i:1:p:49-57
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    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • D8 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General

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