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Rational Asset-Price Movements without News

  • Romer, David

This paper argues that an important part of movements in asset prices may be caused by neither external news nor irrationality but by the revelation of information by the trading process itself. Two models are developed that illustrate this general idea. One model is based on investor uncertainty about the quality of other investors' information; the other is based on dispersion of information and small costs to trading. The analysis is used to suggest a possible rational explanation of the October 1987 crash. Copyright 1993 by American Economic Association.

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Article provided by American Economic Association in its journal American Economic Review.

Volume (Year): 83 (1993)
Issue (Month): 5 (December)
Pages: 1112-30

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Handle: RePEc:aea:aecrev:v:83:y:1993:i:5:p:1112-30
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  1. Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi & Lin, Wen-Ling, 1990. "Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Heteroskedastic Intra-daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(3), pages 525-42, May.
  2. Alan Kraus & Maxwell Smith, 1989. "Market Created Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 557-569, 07.
  3. Caplin, A. & Leahy, J., 1991. "Asymetric Information, Adjustment Costs and Market Dynamics," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1565, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  4. Bulow, Jeremy I. & Klemperer, Paul, 1991. "Rational Frenzies and Crashes," CEPR Discussion Papers 593, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
  6. Albert S. Kyle, 1989. "Informed Speculation with Imperfect Competition," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 56(3), pages 317-355.
  7. Caplin, Andrew & Leahy, John, 1994. "Business as Usual, Market Crashes, and Wisdom after the Fact," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 548-65, June.
  8. Grossman, Sanford J, 1988. "An Analysis of the Implications for Stock and Futures Price Volatility of Program Trading and Dynamic Hedging Strategies," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 61(3), pages 275-98, July.
  9. Gennotte, Gerard & Leland, Hayne, 1990. "Market Liquidity, Hedging, and Crashes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 999-1021, December.
  10. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
  11. Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1987. "Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence From a Simple Specification Test," NBER Working Papers 2168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  12. Robert B. Barsky & J. Bradford De Long, 1989. "Bull and Bear Markets in the Twentieth Century," NBER Working Papers 3171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  13. David M. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "What Moves Stock Prices?," NBER Working Papers 2538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Kraus, Alan & Smith, Maxwell, 1989. " Market Created Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 557-69, July.
  15. Sanford J. Grossman, 1977. "The Existence of Futures Markets, Noisy Rational Expectations and Informational Externalities," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 44(3), pages 431-449.
  16. Mirman, Leonard J. & Reisman, Haim, 1988. "Price fluctuations when only prices reveal information," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 305-310.
  17. Mervyn A. King & Sushil Wadhwani, 1989. "Transmission of Volatility Between Stock Markets," NBER Working Papers 2910, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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