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Rational Asset Price Movements Without News

  • David Romer

This paper argues that an important part of movements in asset prices may be caused by neither external news nor irrationality, but the by revelation of information by the trading process itself. Two models are developed that illustrate this general idea. One model is based on investor uncertainty about the quality of other investors' information: the other is based on widespread dispersion of information and small costs to trading. The analysis is used to suggest a possible rational explanation of the October 1987 crash.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w4121.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 4121.

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Date of creation: Jul 1992
Date of revision:
Publication status: published as American Economic Review, vol 83, (5), pp. 1112-1130 (December 1993)
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:4121
Note: AP
Contact details of provider: Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
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Web page: http://www.nber.org
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  1. Caplin, A. & Leahy, J., 1992. "Business as Usual, Market Crashes, and Wisdom after the Fact," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1594, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  2. Alan Kraus & Maxwell Smith, 1989. "Market Created Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 557-569, 07.
  3. Jeremy Bulow & Paul Klemperer, 1991. "Rational Frenzies and Crashes," NBER Technical Working Papers 0112, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  4. Robert B. Barsky & J. Bradford De Long, 1989. "Bull and Bear Markets in the Twentieth Century," NBER Working Papers 3171, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Andrew W. Lo & A. Craig MacKinlay, 1987. "Stock Market Prices Do Not Follow Random Walks: Evidence From a Simple Specification Test," NBER Working Papers 2168, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Sanford J. Grossman, 1989. "An Analysis of the Implications for Stock and Futures Price Volatility of Program Trading and Dynamic Hedging Strategies," NBER Working Papers 2357, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  7. Engle, Robert F & Ito, Takatoshi & Lin, Wen-Ling, 1990. "Meteor Showers or Heat Waves? Heteroskedastic Intra-daily Volatility in the Foreign Exchange Market," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(3), pages 525-42, May.
  8. Kyle, Albert S, 1985. "Continuous Auctions and Insider Trading," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 53(6), pages 1315-35, November.
  9. David H. Cutler & James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1988. "What Moves Stock Prices?," Working papers 487, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
  10. Gerard Gennotte and Hayne Leland., 1989. "Market Liquidity, Hedging and Crashes," Research Program in Finance Working Papers RPF-192, University of California at Berkeley.
  11. Grossman, Sanford J, 1977. "The Existence of Futures Markets, Noisy Rational Expectations and Informational Externalities," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(3), pages 431-49, October.
  12. Mirman, Leonard J. & Reisman, Haim, 1988. "Price fluctuations when only prices reveal information," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 27(4), pages 305-310.
  13. Kraus, Alan & Smith, Maxwell, 1989. " Market Created Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(3), pages 557-69, July.
  14. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
  15. Kyle, Albert S, 1989. "Informed Speculation with Imperfect Competition," Review of Economic Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(3), pages 317-55, July.
  16. Caplin, A. & Leahy, J., 1991. "Asymetric Information, Adjustment Costs and Market Dynamics," Harvard Institute of Economic Research Working Papers 1565, Harvard - Institute of Economic Research.
  17. James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987. "Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Evidence and Implications," NBER Working Papers 2343, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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