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The behavior and performance of major types of futures traders

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  • Wang, Changyun

Abstract

This article examines the behavior and performance of speculators and hedgers in 15 U.S. futures markets. We find that after controlling for market risk factors, speculators are contrarians, but respond positively to market sentiment. In contrast, hedgers engage in positive feedback trading and trade against market sentiment. We also find that trades of speculators (hedgers) are positively (negatively) correlated with subsequent abnormal returns; however, it does not appear that speculators possess superior forecasting power. Therefore, hedging pressure effects likely explain the negative relation between the performance of speculators and hedgers. The positive feedback trading by hedgers together with their negative performance suggests that hedgers have a destabilizing impact on futures prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Wang, Changyun, 2001. "The behavior and performance of major types of futures traders," MPRA Paper 36426, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Jul 2002.
  • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:36426
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    Cited by:

    1. Adam Clements & Neda Todorova, 2014. "The impact of information flow and trading activity on gold and oil futures volatility," NCER Working Paper Series 102, National Centre for Econometric Research.
    2. Gospodinov, Nikolay & Jamali, Ibrahim, 2013. "Monetary policy surprises, positions of traders, and changes in commodity futures prices," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2013-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    3. Chen, Yu-Lun & Chang, Ya-Kai, 2015. "Investor structure and the informational efficiency of commodity futures prices," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 358-367.
    4. Andreas Röthig & Carl Chiarella, 2007. "Investigating nonlinear speculation in cattle, corn, and hog futures markets using logistic smooth transition regression models," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(8), pages 719-737, August.
    5. Cunningham, Lewis T., III & Brorsen, B. Wade & Anderson, Kim B., 2004. "Explaining Differences In Prices Received By Farmers: Testing Theory Based On Actual Farmer Transactions," 2004 Annual meeting, August 1-4, Denver, CO 20275, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    6. Smales, Lee A., 2016. "Trading behavior in S&P 500 index futures," Review of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 46-55.
    7. Thomas Klitgaard & Laura Weir, 2004. "Exchange rate changes and net positions of speculators in the futures market," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue May, pages 17-28.
    8. Gary B. Gorton & Fumio Hayashi & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2013. "The Fundamentals of Commodity Futures Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 35-105.
    9. Cetin Ciner, 2006. "Hedging or speculation in derivative markets: the case of energy futures contracts," Applied Financial Economics Letters, Taylor and Francis Journals, vol. 2(3), pages 189-192, May.
    10. Yiuman Tse & Michael Williams, 2011. "Does Index Speculation Impact Commodity Prices? An Intraday Futures Analysis Using intraday data, we find that unidirectional causality runs from commodity index linked commodity futures to non-index ," Working Papers 0007, College of Business, University of Texas at San Antonio.
    11. Tokic, Damir, 2012. "Speculation and the 2008 oil bubble: The DCOT Report analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 45(C), pages 541-550.
    12. Bahloul, Walid & Bouri, Abdelfettah, 2016. "Profitability of return and sentiment-based investment strategies in US futures markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 254-270.
    13. Georg Lehecka, 2015. "Do hedging and speculative pressures drive commodity prices, or the other way round?," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 49(2), pages 575-603, September.
    14. Chang, Ya-Kai & Chen, Yu-Lun & Chou, Robin K. & Gau, Yin-Feng, 2013. "The effectiveness of position limits: Evidence from the foreign exchange futures markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4501-4509.
    15. Dwight R. Sanders & Scott H. Irwin & Robert P. Merrin, 2010. "The Adequacy of Speculation in Agricultural Futures Markets: Too Much of a Good Thing?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 77-94.
    16. Chen, Haojun & Maher, Daniela, 2013. "On the predictive role of large futures trades for S&P500 index returns: An analysis of COT data as an informative trading signal," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 177-201.
    17. Cathy Chen & I-Doun Kuo, 2014. "Investor sentiment and interest rate volatility smile: evidence from Eurodollar options markets," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 367-391, August.
    18. Sanders, Dwight R. & Irwin, Scott H. & Merrin, Robert P., 2007. "Smart Money? The Forecasting Ability of CFTC Large Traders," 2007 Conference, April 16-17, 2007, Chicago, Illinois 37556, NCCC-134 Conference on Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    19. Aaron Tornell & Chunming Yuan, 2012. "Speculation and hedging in the currency futures markets: Are they informative to the spot exchange rates," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 122-151, February.
    20. Chen, Cathy Yi-Hsuan & Kuo, I-Doun, 2015. "Survey sentiment and interest rate option smile," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 125-137.
    21. Stan Miles, 2013. "Constant-collateral pyramiding trading strategies in futures markets," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 27(4), pages 381-396, December.
    22. repec:eee:ecofin:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:250-265 is not listed on IDEAS
    23. Haase, Marco & Seiler Zimmermann, Yvonne & Zimmermann, Heinz, 2016. "The impact of speculation on commodity futures markets – A review of the findings of 100 empirical studies," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 1-15.
    24. Yiuman Tse & Michael R. Williams, 2013. "Does Index Speculation Impact Commodity Prices? An Intraday Analysis," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 48(3), pages 365-383, August.
    25. Smales, Lee A., 2014. "News sentiment in the gold futures market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 275-286.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Trader behavior; perfromance; hedgers; speculators;

    JEL classification:

    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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