IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/jocoma/v34y2024ics2405851324000084.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Four Commitments of Traders Reports puzzles, revisited: Answers from grains and oilseeds futures markets

Author

Listed:
  • Robe, Michel A.
  • Roberts, John S.

Abstract

The CFTC’s Commitments of Traders reports (DCOT and SCOT) are a key source of information about the open interest in commodity derivatives markets. While informative, these publications leave open four important questions. (1) Do traders that hold large positions every single day make up most of the total open interest? How big is that “market core”? (2) What is the relation between DCOT figures on swap dealer futures positions and CIT futures positions? (3) Are most futures traders long-only or short-only, or do they hold “mixed” positions? (4) Who makes up the fast-growing “Other Reportables” category that comprises all noncommercial market participants that are not managed money traders? We tackle those questions with regulatory data on futures positions in the four largest U.S. grain and oilseed markets in 2015–2018.

Suggested Citation

  • Robe, Michel A. & Roberts, John S., 2024. "Four Commitments of Traders Reports puzzles, revisited: Answers from grains and oilseeds futures markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jocoma:v:34:y:2024:i:c:s2405851324000084
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2024.100389
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S2405851324000084
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jcomm.2024.100389?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Ing-Haw Cheng & Wei Xiong, 2014. "Financialization of Commodity Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 419-441, December.
    2. Büyükşahin, Bahattin & Robe, Michel A., 2014. "Speculators, commodities and cross-market linkages," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 38-70.
    3. Changyun Wang, 2003. "The behavior and performance of major types of futures traders," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 1-31, January.
    4. Eric Chang & Ray Y. Chou & Edward F. Nelling, 2000. "Market volatility and the demand for hedging in stock index futures," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 20(2), pages 105-125, February.
    5. Martin T. Bohl & Nicole Branger & Mark Trede, 2022. "Measurement errors in index trader positions data: Is the price pressure hypothesis still invalid?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 44(3), pages 1534-1553, September.
    6. Piazzesi, Monika & Swanson, Eric T., 2008. "Futures prices as risk-adjusted forecasts of monetary policy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(4), pages 677-691, May.
    7. Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2013. "Futures trading and the excess comovement of commodity prices," Post-Print hal-01613916, HAL.
    8. Brunetti, Celso & Büyükşahin, Bahattin & Harris, Jeffrey H., 2016. "Speculators, Prices, and Market Volatility," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(5), pages 1545-1574, October.
    9. Ing-Haw Cheng & Andrei Kirilenko & Wei Xiong, 2015. "Convective Risk Flows in Commodity Futures Markets," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 19(5), pages 1733-1781.
    10. Louis Ederington & Jae Ha Lee, 2002. "Who Trades Futures and How: Evidence from the Heating Oil Futures Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 75(2), pages 353-374, April.
    11. Dwight R. Sanders & Scott H. Irwin & Robert P. Merrin, 2010. "The Adequacy of Speculation in Agricultural Futures Markets: Too Much of a Good Thing?," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 32(1), pages 77-94.
    12. Carter, Colin A & Rausser, Gordon C & Schmitz, Andrew, 1983. "Efficient Asset Portfolios and the Theory of Normal Backwardation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 319-331, April.
    13. Chang, Eric C. & Michael Pinegar, J. & Schachter, Barry, 1997. "Interday variations in volume, variance and participation of large speculators," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 21(6), pages 797-810, June.
    14. Gary B. Gorton & Fumio Hayashi & K. Geert Rouwenhorst, 2013. "The Fundamentals of Commodity Futures Returns," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 17(1), pages 35-105.
    15. Michael Dewally & Louis H. Ederington & Chitru S. Fernando, 2013. "Determinants of Trader Profits in Commodity Futures Markets," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(10), pages 2648-2683.
    16. Adjemian, Michael K. & Le, Han & Robe, Michel A., 2021. "Crop Insurance, Futures Prices, and Commercial Trader Positions in Agricultural Futures Markets," 2021 Annual Meeting, August 1-3, Austin, Texas 312872, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    17. Frans A. De Roon & Theo E. Nijman & Chris Veld, 2000. "Hedging Pressure Effects in Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 55(3), pages 1437-1456, June.
    18. Yannick Le Pen & Benoît Sévi, 2018. "Futures Trading and the Excess Co-movement of Commodity Prices [On the comovement of commodity prices]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(1), pages 381-418.
    19. Valentina G. Bruno & Bahattin Büyükşahin & Michel A. Robe, 2017. "The Financialization of Food?," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 99(1), pages 243-264.
    20. Leuthold, Raymond M & Garcia, Philip & Lu, Richard, 1994. "The Returns and Forecasting Ability of Large Traders in the Frozen Pork Bellies Futures Market," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 67(3), pages 459-473, July.
    21. Joseph P. Janzen & Michael K. Adjemian, 2017. "Estimating the Location of World Wheat Price Discovery," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 99(5), pages 1188-1207.
    22. Hartzmark, Michael L, 1987. "Returns to Individual Traders of Futures: Aggregate Results," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 95(6), pages 1292-1306, December.
    23. Wenjin Kang & K. Geert Rouwenhorst & Ke Tang, 2020. "A Tale of Two Premiums: The Role of Hedgers and Speculators in Commodity Futures Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 75(1), pages 377-417, February.
    24. Irwin, Scott H. & Sanders, Dwight R., 2012. "Testing the Masters Hypothesis in commodity futures markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(1), pages 256-269.
    25. Brunetti, Celso & Reiffen, David, 2014. "Commodity index trading and hedging costs," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 153-180.
    26. Working, Holbrook, 1960. "Speculation on Hedging Markets," Food Research Institute Studies, Stanford University, Food Research Institute, vol. 1(2), pages 1-36.
    27. Marta Szymanowska & Frans Roon & Theo Nijman & Rob Goorbergh, 2014. "An Anatomy of Commodity Futures Risk Premia," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(1), pages 453-482, February.
    28. Hartzmark, Michael L, 1991. "Luck versus Forecast Ability: Determinants of Trader Performance in Futures Markets," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 64(1), pages 49-74, January.
    29. Chang, Eric C, 1985. "Returns to Speculators and the Theory of Normal Backwardation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 40(1), pages 193-208, March.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Burns, Christopher B. & Prager, Daniel L., 2024. "Do agricultural swaps co-move with equity markets? Evidence from the COVID-19 crisis," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Boyd, Naomi E. & Harris, Jeffrey H. & Li, Bingxin, 2018. "An update on speculation and financialization in commodity markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 10(C), pages 91-104.
    2. Robe, Michel A. & Roberts, John S., 2021. "20 Years of CFTC Data: Who Holds Positions in Agricultural Futures Markets?," 2021 Annual Meeting, August 1-3, Austin, Texas 313995, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    3. Guillermo Llorente & Jiang Wang, 2020. "Trading and information in futures markets," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1231-1263, August.
    4. Büyükşahin, Bahattin & Robe, Michel A., 2014. "Speculators, commodities and cross-market linkages," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 38-70.
    5. Nicole M. Moran & Scott H. Irwin & Philip Garcia, 2020. "Who Wins and Who Loses? Trader Returns and Risk Premiums in Agricultural Futures Markets," Applied Economic Perspectives and Policy, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(4), pages 611-652, December.
    6. Bohl, Martin T. & Irwin, Scott H. & Pütz, Alexander & Sulewski, Christoph, 2023. "The impact of financialization on the efficiency of commodity futures markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    7. Loïc Maréchal, 2023. "A tale of two premiums revisited," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 43(5), pages 580-614, May.
    8. Yao, Wei & Alexiou, Constantinos, 2024. "On the transmission mechanism between the inventory arbitrage activity, speculative activity and the commodity price under the US QE policy: Evidence from a TVP-VAR model," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 89(PA), pages 1054-1072.
    9. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2015. "Effects Of Index‐Fund Investing On Commodity Futures Prices," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(1), pages 187-205, February.
    10. Jo, Yonghwan & Kim, Jihee & Santos, Francisco, 2022. "The impact of liquidity risk in the Chinese banking system on the global commodity markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 23-50.
    11. Bonnier, Jean-Baptiste, 2021. "Speculation and informational efficiency in commodity futures markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    12. Changyun Wang, 2003. "The behavior and performance of major types of futures traders," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 23(1), pages 1-31, January.
    13. Pankaj K. Jain & Ayla Kayhan & Esen Onur, 2024. "Determinants of commodity market liquidity," The Financial Review, Eastern Finance Association, vol. 59(1), pages 9-30, February.
    14. Valenti, Daniele & Manera, Matteo & Sbuelz, Alessandro, 2020. "Interpreting the oil risk premium: Do oil price shocks matter?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 91(C).
    15. Ing-Haw Cheng & Wei Xiong, 2014. "Financialization of Commodity Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 6(1), pages 419-441, December.
    16. Jean-Baptiste Bonnier, 2021. "Speculation and informational efficiency in commodity futures markets," Post-Print hal-04299220, HAL.
    17. Bohl, Martin T. & Sulewski, Christoph, 2019. "The impact of long-short speculators on the volatility of agricultural commodity futures prices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(C).
    18. Bohl, Martin T. & Pütz, Alexander & Sulewski, Christoph, 2021. "Speculation and the informational efficiency of commodity futures markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    19. Manera, Matteo & Nicolini, Marcella & Vignati, Ilaria, 2016. "Modelling futures price volatility in energy markets: Is there a role for financial speculation?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 220-229.
    20. Haase, Marco & Seiler Zimmermann, Yvonne & Zimmermann, Heinz, 2016. "The impact of speculation on commodity futures markets – A review of the findings of 100 empirical studies," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 1-15.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Commitments of Traders; Open interest composition; Market core; CIT; Other Reportables; Agricultural futures;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • N22 - Economic History - - Financial Markets and Institutions - - - U.S.; Canada: 1913-
    • N50 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries - - - General, International, or Comparative
    • Q14 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Finance

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:jocoma:v:34:y:2024:i:c:s2405851324000084. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jcomm .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.