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The impact of long-short speculators on the volatility of agricultural commodity futures prices

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  • Bohl, Martin T.
  • Sulewski, Christoph

Abstract

Departing from the lively discussion about the Masters' hypothesis, this paper examines whether increasing activities of long-short speculators in commodity futures markets have a stabilizing or destabilizing impact on price movements. Our analysis covers five agricultural commodities traded in the US market over the period from 2006 to 2017. We conclude that long-short speculators do not destabilize commodity prices. Instead, we find evidence that activities of long-short speculators reduce volatility in the markets under scrutiny.

Suggested Citation

  • Bohl, Martin T. & Sulewski, Christoph, 2019. "The impact of long-short speculators on the volatility of agricultural commodity futures prices," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 16(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jocoma:v:16:y:2019:i:c:s2405851317301630
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jcomm.2019.01.001
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    3. Algirdas Justinas Staugaitis & Bernardas Vaznonis, 2022. "Financial Speculation Impact on Agricultural and Other Commodity Return Volatility: Implications for Sustainable Development and Food Security," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(11), pages 1-27, November.
    4. Xu, Shaojun, 2023. "Behavioral asset pricing under expected feedback mode," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
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    6. Anthony N. Rezitis & Gregor Kastner, 2021. "On the joint volatility dynamics in international dairy commodity markets," Australian Journal of Agricultural and Resource Economics, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society, vol. 65(3), pages 704-728, July.
    7. Qianqian Mao & Jens-Peter Loy & Thomas Glauben & Yanjun Ren, 2023. "Are futures markets functioning well for agricultural perishables? Evidence from China's apple futures market," Agricultural Economics, Czech Academy of Agricultural Sciences, vol. 69(12), pages 471-484.
    8. Mohanty, Sunil K. & Mishra, Sibanjan, 2020. "Regulatory reform and market efficiency: The case of Indian agricultural commodity futures markets," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 52(C).
    9. Algirdas Justinas Staugaitis & Bernardas Vaznonis, 2022. "Short-Term Speculation Effects on Agricultural Commodity Returns and Volatility in the European Market Prior to and during the Pandemic," Agriculture, MDPI, vol. 12(5), pages 1-26, April.
    10. Chen, Yu-Lun & Mo, Wan-Shin & Chang, Ya-Kai, 2022. "Investor sentiment spillover effect and market quality in crude oil futures," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 177-193.

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