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The Role of Financial Speculation in Driving the Price of Crude Oil

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  • Ron Alquist
  • Olivier Gervais

Abstract

As financial firms have increased their positions in the oil futures market during the past ten years, oil prices have increased dramatically as well. The coincidence of these two events has led some observers to argue that financial speculation caused the oil-price increases. Yet several arguments cast doubt on the validity of this claim. For example, although the quantity of oil implied by the number ofopen futures contracts is much larger than U.S. daily oil consumption, comparing these two statistics is misleading because not all paper oil is immediately deliverable. In addition, changes in financial firms’ positions do not predict oil-price changes, but oil-price changes predict changes in positions. Other explanations for the oil-price increases include macroeconomic fundamentals such as increased demand from emerging Asia. Of these explanations, the most consistent with the facts relates the oil-price increases to a series of positive demand shocks emanating from emerging Asia.

Suggested Citation

  • Ron Alquist & Olivier Gervais, 2013. "The Role of Financial Speculation in Driving the Price of Crude Oil," The Energy Journal, , vol. 34(3), pages 35-54, July.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:enejou:v:34:y:2013:i:3:p:35-54
    DOI: 10.5547/01956574.34.3.3
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    Cited by:

    1. Manera, Matteo & Nicolini, Marcella & Vignati, Ilaria, 2013. "Futures Price Volatility in Commodities Markets: The Role of Short Term vs Long Term Speculation," Energy: Resources and Markets 151372, Fondazione Eni Enrico Mattei (FEEM).
    2. Bassam Fattouh & Lutz Kilian & Lavan Mahadeva, 2013. "The Role of Speculation in Oil Markets: What Have We Learned So Far?," The Energy Journal, , vol. 34(3), pages 7-33, July.
    3. Liu, Li & Wang, Yudong & Wu, Chongfeng & Wu, Wenfeng, 2016. "Disentangling the determinants of real oil prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 363-373.
    4. Ganepola, Chanaka N. & Zarei, Alireza & Tony-Okeke, Uchenna, 2025. "The other side of the coin: Speculation in bearish natural gas markets," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 40(C).
    5. James D. Hamilton & Jing Cynthia Wu, 2015. "Effects Of Index‐Fund Investing On Commodity Futures Prices," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 56(1), pages 187-205, February.
    6. Alquist, Ron & Guénette, Justin-Damien, 2014. "A blessing in disguise: The implications of high global oil prices for the North American market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 49-57.
    7. Li, Haiqi & Kim, Myeong Jun & Park, Sung Y., 2016. "Nonlinear relationship between crude oil price and net futures positions: A dynamic conditional distribution approach," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 217-225.
    8. Hamilton, James D. & Wu, Jing Cynthia, 2014. "Risk premia in crude oil futures prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 9-37.
    9. Deepa D. Datta & Benjamin K. Johannsen & Hannah Kwon & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2021. "Oil, Equities, and the Zero Lower Bound," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 214-253, April.
    10. Nourah Al†Yousef, 2018. "Fundamentals and Oil Price Behaviour: New Evidence from Co†integration Tests with Structural Breaks and Granger Causality Tests," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 57(1), pages 1-18, March.
    11. Čermák, Michal & Ligocká, Marie, . "Could Exist a Causality Between the Most Traded Commodities and Futures Commodity Prices in the Agricultural Market?," AGRIS on-line Papers in Economics and Informatics, Czech University of Life Sciences Prague, Faculty of Economics and Management, vol. 14(4).
    12. Walid Mensi & Salem Adel Ziadat & Xuan Vinh Vo & Sang Hoon Kang, 2024. "Spillovers and Portfolio Management Between the Uncertainty Indices of Oil and Gold and G7 Stock Markets," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 64(4), pages 2233-2262, October.
    13. Ding, Haoyuan & Kim, Hyung-Gun & Park, Sung Y., 2014. "Do net positions in the futures market cause spot prices of crude oil?," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 177-190.
    14. Sun, Zesheng & Wang, Yaoqing & Zhou, Xu & Yang, Lunan, 2019. "The roundabout from interest rates to commodity prices in China: The role of money flow," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 627-642.
    15. Elgouacem, Assia & Legrand, Nicolas, 2019. "The Delaying Effect of Storage on Investment: Evidence from The Crude Oil Sector," 2019 Conference, April 15-16, 2019, Minneapolis, Minnesota 309626, NCR-134/ NCCC-134 Applied Commodity Price Analysis, Forecasting, and Market Risk Management.
    16. Morana, Claudio, 2013. "Oil price dynamics, macro-finance interactions and the role of financial speculation," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 206-226.
    17. Robert Socha & Piotr Wdowiński, 2018. "Crude oil price and speculative activity: a cointegration analysis," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 10(3), pages 263-304, September.
    18. Li, Yingzi & Fortenbery, T. Randall, 2013. "Do Speculators in Futures Markets Make Cash Markets More Volatile?," 2013 Annual Meeting, August 4-6, 2013, Washington, D.C. 151296, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
    19. Ding, Haoyuan & Kim, Hyung-Gun & Park, Sung Y., 2016. "Crude oil and stock markets: Causal relationships in tails?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 58-69.
    20. Li, Haiqi & Kim, Hyung-Gun & Park, Sung Y., 2015. "The role of financial speculation in the energy future markets: A new time-varying coefficient approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 112-122.
    21. Theodosios Perifanis & Athanasios Dagoumas, 2019. "Living in an Era when Market Fundamentals Determine Crude Oil Price," The Energy Journal, , vol. 40(1_suppl), pages 317-336, June.

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    JEL classification:

    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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