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Oil, Equities, and the Zero Lower Bound

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Abstract

From late 2008 to 2017, oil and equity returns were more positively correlated than in other periods. In addition, we show that both oil and equity returns became more responsive to macroeconomic news. We provide empirical evidence and theoretical justification that these changes resulted from nominal interest rates being constrained by the zero lower bound (ZLB). Although the ZLB alters the economic environment in theory, supportive empirical evidence has been lacking. Our paper provides clear evidence of the ZLB altering the economic environment, with implications for the effectiveness of fiscal and monetary policy.

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  • Deepa Dhume Datta & Benjamin K. Johannsen & Hannah Kwon & Robert J. Vigfusson, 2018. "Oil, Equities, and the Zero Lower Bound," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2018-058, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgfe:2018-58
    DOI: 10.17016/FEDS.2018.058
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    Cited by:

    1. Édouard Challe, 2018. "Is the Study of Business-Cycle Fluctuations “Scientific?”," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(3), pages 151-165.
    2. Choi, Sangyup & Shin, Junhyeok & Yoo, Seung Yong, 2022. "Are government spending shocks inflationary at the zero lower bound? New evidence from daily data," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    3. Peersman, Gert & Rüth, Sebastian K. & Van der Veken, Wouter, 2021. "The interplay between oil and food commodity prices: Has it changed over time?," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
    4. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2022. "Oil prices, exchange rates and interest rates," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    5. Alfonso A. Irarrazabal & Lin Ma & Juan Carlos Parra-Alvarez, 2023. "Optimal asset allocation for commodity sovereign wealth funds," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 23(3), pages 471-495, March.
    6. Nguyen, Bao H. & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi, 2019. "Asymmetric reactions of the US natural gas market and economic activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 80(C), pages 86-99.
    7. Ron Alquist & Reinhard Ellwanger & Jianjian Jin, 2020. "The effect of oil price shocks on asset markets: Evidence from oil inventory news," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 40(8), pages 1212-1230, August.
    8. Ahmed, Rashad, 2023. "Global commodity prices and macroeconomic fluctuations in a low interest rate environment," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(PB).
    9. Nguyen, Bao H. & Okimoto, Tatsuyoshi & Tran, Trung Duc, 2022. "Uncertainty-dependent and sign-dependent effects of oil market shocks," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 26(C).
    10. Bergholt, Drago & Larsen, Vegard H. & Seneca, Martin, 2019. "Business cycles in an oil economy," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 96(C), pages 283-303.
    11. Phuong Ngo & Francois Gourio, 2016. "Risk Premia at the ZLB: a macroeconomic interpretation," 2016 Meeting Papers 1585, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    12. Jinan Liu & Apostolos Serletis, 2022. "World Commodity Prices and Economic Activity in Advanced and Emerging Economies," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 33(2), pages 347-374, April.
    13. Wataru Miyamoto & Thuy Lan Nguyen & Dmitry Sergeyev, 2023. "How Oil Shocks Propagate: Evidence on the Monetary Policy Channel," Working Paper Series 2024-06, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    14. José Renato Haas Ornelas & Roberto Baltieri Mauad, 2017. "Volatility risk premia and future commodities returns," BIS Working Papers 619, Bank for International Settlements.
    15. Schlepper, Kathi & Riordan, Ryan & Hofer, Heiko & Schrimpf, Andreas, 2017. "Scarcity effects of QE: A transaction-level analysis in the Bund market," Discussion Papers 06/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    16. Martínez-Cañete, Ana R. & Márquez-de-la-Cruz, Elena & Pérez-Soba, Inés, 2022. "Non-linear cointegration between oil and stock prices: The role of interest rates," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C).
    17. Nikolay Gospodinov, 2017. "Asset Co-movements: Features and Challenges," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2017-11, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
    18. Degiannakis, Stavros & Filis, George, 2023. "Oil price assumptions for macroeconomic policy," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
    19. Theophilus Teye Osah & Andre Varella Mollick, 2023. "Stock and oil price returns in international markets: Identifying short and long-run effects," Journal of Economics and Finance, Springer;Academy of Economics and Finance, vol. 47(1), pages 116-141, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Equities; Macroeconomic surprises; New Keynesian models; Oil; Zero lower bound;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • E30 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • E01 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - General - - - Measurement and Data on National Income and Product Accounts and Wealth; Environmental Accounts
    • C81 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Data Collection and Data Estimation Methodology; Computer Programs - - - Methodology for Collecting, Estimating, and Organizing Microeconomic Data; Data Access

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