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Oil shocks and the zero bound on nominal interest rates

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  • Martin Bodenstein
  • Luca Guerrieri
  • Christopher J. Gust

Abstract

Beginning in 2009, in many advanced economies, policy rates reached their zero lower bound (ZLB). Almost at the same time, oil prices started rising again. We analyze how the ZLB affects the propagation of oil shocks. As these shocks move inflation and output in opposite directions, their effects on economic activity are cushioned when monetary policy is constrained. The burst of inflation from an oil price increase lowers real interest rates at the ZLB and stimulates the interest-sensitive component of GDP, offsetting the usual contractionary effects. In fact, if the increase in oil prices is gradual, the persistent rise in inflation can cause a GDP expansion.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Bodenstein & Luca Guerrieri & Christopher J. Gust, 2010. "Oil shocks and the zero bound on nominal interest rates," International Finance Discussion Papers 1009, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedgif:1009
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    Cited by:

    1. Davis, J. Scott & Presno, Ignacio, 2017. "Capital controls and monetary policy autonomy in a small open economy," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 114-130.
    2. Yasuo Hirose & Takeki Sunakawa, 2016. "Parameter Bias in an Estimated DSGE Model," Working Papers halshs-01661908, HAL.
    3. Duncan, Alfred & Nolan, Charles, 2014. "Disputes, Debt and Equity," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-29, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    4. Holm-Hadulla, Fédéric & Hubrich, Kirstin, 2017. "Macroeconomic implications of oil price fluctuations: a regime-switching framework for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2119, European Central Bank.
    5. Christian Dreger & Malte Rieth & David Pothier, 2015. "Is Globalization Reducing the Ability of Central Banks to Control Inflation? In-Depth Analysis," DIW Berlin: Politikberatung kompakt, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research, volume 106, number pbk106.
    6. repec:aea:aecrev:v:107:y:2017:i:7:p:1971-2006 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Holden, Tom D., 2016. "Computation of solutions to dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints," EconStor Preprints 144569, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    8. Chen, Xiaoshan & Kirsanova, Tatiana & Leith, Campbell, 2014. "An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area," SIRE Discussion Papers 2015-04, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    9. Yasuo Hirose & Atsushi Inoue, 2016. "The Zero Lower Bound and Parameter Bias in an Estimated DSGE Model," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(4), pages 630-651, June.
    10. Deepa Datta & Benjamin K Johannsen & Hannah Kwon & Robert J Vigfusson, 2017. "Oil, equities, and the zero lower bound," BIS Working Papers 617, Bank for International Settlements.
    11. Luca Guerrieri & Matteo Iacoviello & Raoul Minetti, 2013. "Banks, Sovereign Debt, and the International Transmission of Business Cycles," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(1), pages 181-213.
    12. Holden, Tom D., 2016. "Existence, uniqueness and computation of solutions to dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints," EconStor Preprints 127430, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
    13. Zhishuang Zhu & Huaming Zhang & Gege Tao & Feng Yu, 2016. "Effects of gas pricing reform on China’s price level and total output," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 84(1), pages 167-178, November.
    14. Mitsuru Katagiri & Koji Takahashi, 2017. "Do Term Premiums Matter? Transmission via Exchange Rate Dynamics," Bank of Japan Working Paper Series 17-E-7, Bank of Japan.
    15. Guerrieri, Luca & Iacoviello, Matteo, 2015. "OccBin: A toolkit for solving dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints easily," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 22-38.
    16. Alexandre Lucas Cole & Chiara Guerello & Guido Traficante, 2016. "Government Debt Deleveraging in the EMU," Working Papers CELEG 1603, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    17. Chen, Xiaoshan & Kirsanova, Tatiana & Leith, Campbell, 2014. "An Empirical Assessment of Optimal Monetary Policy Delegation in the Euro Area," 2007 Annual Meeting, July 29-August 1, 2007, Portland, Oregon TN 2015-04, American Agricultural Economics Association (New Name 2008: Agricultural and Applied Economics Association).
    18. Sylvain Leduc & Mark M. Spiegel, 2013. "Is Asia Decoupling from the United States (Again)?," Pacific Economic Review, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 18(3), pages 345-369, August.
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    21. Christopher Gust & Edward Herbst & David López-Salido & Matthew E. Smith, 2017. "The Empirical Implications of the Interest-Rate Lower Bound," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(7), pages 1971-2006, July.
    22. Holden, Thomas, 2016. "Existence and uniqueness of solutions to dynamic models with occasionally binding constraints," EconStor Preprints 130142, ZBW - German National Library of Economics.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Petroleum products - Prices ; Petroleum industry and trade;

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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