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Oil Efficiency, Demand, and Prices: a Tale of Ups and Downs

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  • Luca Guerrieri

    (Federal Reserve Board)

  • Martin Bodenstein

    (Asian Development Bank and Federal Reserve Board)

Abstract

The macroeconomic implications of oil price fluctuations vary according to their sources. Our estimated two-country DSGE model distinguishes between country-specific oil supply shocks, various domestic and foreign activity shocks, and oil efficiency shocks. Changes in foreign oil efficiency, modeled as factor-augmenting technology, were the key driver of fluctuations in oil prices between 1984 and 2008, but had modest effects on U.S. activity. A pickup in foreign activity played an important role in the 2003-2008 oil price runup. Beyond quantifying the responses of oil prices and economic activity, our model informs about the propagation mechanisms. We find evidence that nonoil trade linkages are an important transmission channel for shocks that affect oil prices. Conversely, nominal rigidities and monetary policy are not.

Suggested Citation

  • Luca Guerrieri & Martin Bodenstein, 2012. "Oil Efficiency, Demand, and Prices: a Tale of Ups and Downs," 2012 Meeting Papers 25, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    • Handle: RePEc:red:sed012:25
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    5. Conny Olovsson, 2019. "Oil prices in a general equilibrium model with precautionary demand for oil," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 32, pages 1-17, April.
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    9. Prest, Brian C. & Fell, Harrison & Gordon, Deborah & Conway, TJ, 2024. "Estimating the emissions reductions from supply-side fossil fuel interventions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 136(C).
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    13. Liu, Qing & Shi, Kang & Wu, Zhouheng & Xu, Juanyi, 2014. "Oil price stabilization and global welfare," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 246-260.
    14. Zubarev, Andrey (Зубарев, Андрей) & Polbin, Andrey (Полбин, Андрей), 2017. "Scenario Analysis of the Impact of Reducing the Export Duty on Oil on the Russian Economy within the Framework of the General Equilibrium Model [Сценарный Анализ Влияния На Российскую Экономику Сни," Working Papers 051734, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
    15. Maurizio Michael Habib & Sascha Bützer & Livio Stracca, 2016. "Global Exchange Rate Configurations: Do Oil Shocks Matter?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 443-470, August.
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