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Global Exchange Rate Configurations: Do Oil Shocks Matter?

Author

Listed:
  • Maurizio Michael Habib

    (European Central Bank)

  • Sascha Bützer

    (European Central Bank)

  • Livio Stracca

    (European Central Bank)

Abstract

Abstract Do oil shocks matter for exchange rates? This paper identifies three structural shocks that impact on the oil market and analyzes their effect on exchange rates in 43 advanced and emerging countries. It finds that oil-exporting countries tend to experience appreciation pressures after oil shocks, especially oil demand shocks, which are largely offset by foreign exchange reserves accumulation. A main theoretical prediction of most general equilibrium models, namely that shocks leading to increases in oil prices are associated with a real appreciation of oil exporters, is not supported by the paper’s results, as oil producers either peg their exchange rate or accumulate foreign exchange reserves in the wake of these shocks, even when they have floating currencies.

Suggested Citation

  • Maurizio Michael Habib & Sascha Bützer & Livio Stracca, 2016. "Global Exchange Rate Configurations: Do Oil Shocks Matter?," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 64(3), pages 443-470, August.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfecr:v:64:y:2016:i:3:d:10.1057_imfer.2016.9
    DOI: 10.1057/imfer.2016.9
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    Cited by:

    1. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Oil prices and effective dollar exchange rates," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 621-636.
    2. Gnimassoun, Blaise & Joëts, Marc & Razafindrabe, Tovonony, 2017. "On the link between current account and oil price fluctuations in diversified economies: The case of Canada," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 152(C), pages 63-78.
    3. Coudert, Virginie & Couharde, Cécile & Mignon, Valérie, 2015. "On the impact of volatility on the real exchange rate – terms of trade nexus: Revisiting commodity currencies," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 110-127.
    4. Virginie Coudert & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon, 2013. "On the Impact of Oil Price Volatility on the Real Exchange Rate - Terms of Trade Nexus : Revisiting Commodity Currencies," Working Papers 2013-40, CEPII research center.
    5. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2017. "The impact of oil-market shocks on stock returns in major oil-exporting countries: A Markov-switching approach," MPRA Paper 81638, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. repec:vrs:reoecp:v:17:y:2017:i:4:p:399-423:n:4 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Alfred Haug & Syed Basher & Perry Sadorsky, 2016. "The impact of oil price shocks on exchange rates: A non-linear smooth-transition approach," EcoMod2016 9226, EcoMod.
    8. Allegret, Jean-Pierre & Mignon, Valérie & Sallenave, Audrey, 2015. "Oil price shocks and global imbalances: Lessons from a model with trade and financial interdependencies," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 232-247.
    9. Jean-Pierre Allegret & Cécile Couharde & Valérie Mignon & Tovonony Razafindrabe, 2017. "Oil currencies in the face of oil shocks: what can be learned from time-varying specifications?," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(18), pages 1774-1793, April.
    10. repec:eee:enepol:v:118:y:2018:i:c:p:245-256 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. John Baffes & M. Ayhan Kose & Franziska Ohnsorge & Marc Stocker, 2015. "The Great Plunge in Oil Prices: Causes, Consequences, and Policy Responses," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1504, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
    12. Marcel Fratzscher & Daniel Schneider & Ine Van Robays, 2013. "Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Asset Prices," Discussion Papers of DIW Berlin 1302, DIW Berlin, German Institute for Economic Research.
    13. repec:eee:eneeco:v:72:y:2018:i:c:p:601-620 is not listed on IDEAS
    14. repec:eee:riibaf:v:44:y:2018:i:c:p:100-123 is not listed on IDEAS
    15. repec:eee:jimfin:v:86:y:2018:i:c:p:264-280 is not listed on IDEAS
    16. Kyritsis, Evangelos & Serletis, Apostolos, 2018. "The zero lower bound and market spillovers: Evidence from the G7 and Norway," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 100-123.
    17. Beckmann, Joscha & Czudaj, Robert, 2013. "Is there a homogeneous causality pattern between oil prices and currencies of oil importers and exporters?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 665-678.
    18. Basher, Syed Abul & Haug, Alfred A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2016. "The impact of oil shocks on exchange rates: A Markov-switching approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 11-23.
    19. Atems, Bebonchu & Kapper, Devin & Lam, Eddery, 2015. "Do exchange rates respond asymmetrically to shocks in the crude oil market?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 227-238.
    20. Turhan, M. Ibrahim & Sensoy, Ahmet & Hacihasanoglu, Erk, 2014. "A comparative analysis of the dynamic relationship between oil prices and exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 397-414.
    21. Joscha Beckmann & Robert Czudaj, 2013. "Is there a Homogeneous Causality Pattern between Oil Prices and Currencies of Oil Importers and Exporters?," Ruhr Economic Papers 0431, Rheinisch-Westfälisches Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-Universität Bochum, Universität Dortmund, Universität Duisburg-Essen.
    22. Castro Rozo, César & Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca, 2018. "Time-varying relationship between oil price and exchange rate," MPRA Paper 87879, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    23. repec:zbw:rwirep:0431 is not listed on IDEAS
    24. Edouard Djeutem & Geoffrey R. Dunbar, 2018. "Uncovered Return Parity: Equity Returns and Currency Returns," Staff Working Papers 18-22, Bank of Canada.
    25. repec:ejn:ejefjr:v:6:y:2018:i:1:p:84-92 is not listed on IDEAS

    More about this item

    Keywords

    F31; Q43;

    JEL classification:

    • F31 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Exchange
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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