IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/
MyIDEAS: Login to save this paper or follow this series

Oil Prices, Exchange Rates and Emerging Stock Markets

  • Syed Abul Basher

    ()

    (Department of Research & Monetary Policy Qatar Central Bank)

  • Alfred Haug

    ()

    (Department of Economics, University of Otago)

  • Perry Sadorsky

    ()

    (Schulich School of Business, York University)

While two different streams of literature exist investigating 1) the relationship between oil prices and emerging market stock prices and 2) oil prices and exchange rates, relatively little is known about the relationship between oil prices, exchange rates and emerging stock markets. This paper proposes and estimates a structural vector autoregression to investigate the dynamic relationship between these variables. Impulse responses are calculated in two ways (standard, projection based methods). The model supports stylized facts. In particular, positive shocks to oil prices tend to depress emerging market stock prices and US dollar exchange rates in the short run.

If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.

File URL: http://www.business.otago.ac.nz/econ/research/discussionpapers/DP_1014.pdf
File Function: First version, 2010
Download Restriction: no

Paper provided by University of Otago, Department of Economics in its series Working Papers with number 1014.

as
in new window

Length: 36 pages
Date of creation: Sep 2010
Date of revision: Sep 2010
Handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:1014
Contact details of provider: Postal: P.O. Box 56, Dunedin
Phone: +64 3 479 8725
Fax: 64 3 479 8171
Web page: http://www.business.otago.ac.nz/econ
Email:


More information through EDIRC

References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:

as in new window
  1. Toda, Hiro Y. & Yamamoto, Taku, 1995. "Statistical inference in vector autoregressions with possibly integrated processes," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 66(1-2), pages 225-250.
  2. Nicholas Apergis & Stephen M. Miller, 2008. "Do Structural Oil-Market Shocks Affect Stock Prices?," Working papers 2008-51, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
  3. Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997. "Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
  4. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. " Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-91, June.
  5. Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2006. "Assessing structural VARs," International Finance Discussion Papers 866, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    • Lawrence J. Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Robert Vigfusson, 2007. "Assessing Structural VARs," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2006, Volume 21, pages 1-106 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Akram, Q. Farooq, 2009. "Commodity prices, interest rates and the dollar," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(6), pages 838-851, November.
  7. James D. Hamilton, 2009. "Causes and Consequences of the Oil Shock of 2007-08," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(1 (Spring), pages 215-283.
  8. Pindyck, Robert S & Rotemberg, Julio J, 1990. "The Excess Co-movement of Commodity Prices," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 100(403), pages 1173-89, December.
  9. Kilian, Lutz & Vigfusson, Robert J., 2009. "Pitfalls in Estimating Asymmetric Effects of Energy Price Shocks," CEPR Discussion Papers 7284, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  10. Melvin, Michael & Taylor, Mark P., 2009. "The crisis in the foreign exchange market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(8), pages 1317-1330, December.
  11. Karim M. Abadir & Kaddour Hadri & Elias Tzavalis, 1999. "The Influence of VAR Dimensions on Estimator Biases," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 67(1), pages 163-182, January.
  12. Jesús Fernández-Villaverde & Juan Francisco Rubio-Ramírez & Thomas Sargent, 2005. "A, B, C’s, (and D’s) for understanding VARs," Working Paper 2005-09, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  13. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Gali, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Shocks: Why are the 2000s So Different from the 1970s?," NBER Working Papers 13368, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  14. Kilian, Lutz & Park, Cheolbeom, 2007. "The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the U.S. Stock Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 6166, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  15. Alasdair Scott & George Kapetanios & Adrian Pagan, 2005. "Making a match: combining theory and evidence in policy-oriented macroeconomic modelling," Computing in Economics and Finance 2005 462, Society for Computational Economics.
  16. Cheng, Hui Fang & Gutierrez, Margarida & Mahajan, Arvind & Shachmurove, Yochanan & Shahrokhi, Manuchehr, 2007. "A future global economy to be built by BRICs," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(2), pages 143-156.
  17. Linda S. Goldberg & Cedric Tille, 2005. "Vehicle Currency Use in International Trade," NBER Working Papers 11127, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Hamilton, James D., 2011. "Nonlinearities And The Macroeconomic Effects Of Oil Prices," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 15(S3), pages 364-378, November.
  19. Olivier J. Blanchard & Jordi Galí, 2007. "The Macroeconomic Effects of Oil Price Shocks: Why are the 2000s so different from the 1970s?," NBER Chapters, in: International Dimensions of Monetary Policy, pages 373-421 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  20. S. Brock Blomberg & Ethan S. Harris, 1995. "The commodity-consumer price connection: fact or fable?," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, issue Oct, pages 21-38.
  21. Basher, Syed A. & Sadorsky, Perry, 2006. "Oil price risk and emerging stock markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 224-251, December.
  22. Sadorsky, Perry, 2000. "The empirical relationship between energy futures prices and exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 253-266, April.
  23. Huang, Ying & Guo, Feng, 2007. "The role of oil price shocks on China's real exchange rate," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 403-416.
  24. Phillips, Peter C. B., 1998. "Impulse response and forecast error variance asymptotics in nonstationary VARs," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1-2), pages 21-56.
  25. Lin, Jin-Lung & Tsay, Ruey S, 1996. "Co-integration Constraint and Forecasting: An Empirical Examination," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 519-38, Sept.-Oct.
  26. Huang, Bwo-Nung & Hwang, M.J. & Peng, Hsiao-Ping, 2005. "The asymmetry of the impact of oil price shocks on economic activities: An application of the multivariate threshold model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(3), pages 455-476, May.
  27. Kilian, Lutz, 2006. "Not All Oil Price Shocks Are Alike: Disentangling Demand and Supply Shocks in the Crude Oil Market," CEPR Discussion Papers 5994, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  28. Pierre Perron & Zhongjun Qu, 2006. "A Simple Modification to Improve the Finite Sample Properties of Ng and Perron’s Unit Root Tests," Boston University - Department of Economics - Working Papers Series WP2006-010, Boston University - Department of Economics.
  29. Ferson, Wayne E. & Harvey, Campbell R., 1994. "Sources of risk and expected returns in global equity markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 18(4), pages 775-803, September.
  30. Lizardo, Radhamés A. & Mollick, André V., 2010. "Oil price fluctuations and U.S. dollar exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 399-408, March.
  31. Graham Elliott & Thomas J. Rothenberg & James H. Stock, 1992. "Efficient Tests for an Autoregressive Unit Root," NBER Technical Working Papers 0130, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  32. Agnès Bénassy-Quéré & Valérie Mignon & Alexis Penot, 2005. "China and the Relationship Between the Oil Price and the Dollar," Working Papers 2005-16, CEPII research center.
  33. Amano, R. A. & van Norden, S., 1998. "Oil prices and the rise and fall of the US real exchange rate," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 299-316, April.
  34. Zhang, Yue-Jun & Fan, Ying & Tsai, Hsien-Tang & Wei, Yi-Ming, 2008. "Spillover effect of US dollar exchange rate on oil prices," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 973-991.
  35. Boyer, M. Martin & Filion, Didier, 2007. "Common and fundamental factors in stock returns of Canadian oil and gas companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 428-453, May.
  36. Hamilton, James D., 2003. "What is an oil shock?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 113(2), pages 363-398, April.
  37. Alfred A Haug & Christie Smith, 2007. "Local linear impulse responses for a small open economy," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/09, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
  38. Paul R. Krugman, 1980. "Oil and the Dollar," NBER Working Papers 0554, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  39. Papapetrou, Evangelia, 2001. "Oil price shocks, stock market, economic activity and employment in Greece," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(5), pages 511-532, September.
  40. Kaneko Takashi & Lee Bong-Soo, 1995. "Relative Importance of Economic Factors in the U.S. and Japanese Stock Markets," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 290-307, September.
  41. Sadorsky, Perry, 1999. "Oil price shocks and stock market activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 449-469, October.
  42. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Dibooglu, Sel & Aleisa, Eisa, 2004. "Relationships among U.S. oil prices and oil industry equity indices," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 427-453.
  43. Sims, Christopher A & Stock, James H & Watson, Mark W, 1990. "Inference in Linear Time Series Models with Some Unit Roots," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 58(1), pages 113-44, January.
  44. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "A Comparison of the Effects of Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks on Output and Inflation in the G7 Countries," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 6(1), pages 78-121, 03.
  45. Golub, Stephen S, 1983. "Oil Prices and Exchange Rates," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 93(371), pages 576-93, September.
  46. Faff, Robert W. & Brailsford, Timothy J., 1999. "Oil price risk and the Australian stock market," Journal of Energy Finance & Development, Elsevier, vol. 4(1), pages 69-87, 06.
  47. Paul Krugman, 1983. "Oil Shocks and Exchange Rate Dynamics," NBER Chapters, in: Exchange Rates and International Macroeconomics, pages 259-284 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  48. David Harris & David I. Harvey & Stephen J. Leybourne & A. M. Robert Taylor, 2007. "Testing for a unit root in the presence of a possible break in trend," Discussion Papers 07/04, University of Nottingham, Granger Centre for Time Series Econometrics.
  49. Robert N McCauley & Patrick McGuire, 2009. "Dollar appreciation in 2008: safe haven, carry trades, dollar shortage and overhedging," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, December.
  50. Chen, Yu-chin & Rogoff, Kenneth, 2003. "Commodity currencies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 133-160, May.
  51. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Li, Huimin, 2005. "Oil sensitivity and systematic risk in oil-sensitive stock indices," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 57(1), pages 1-21.
  52. Allan W. Gregory & Alfred A. Haug & Nicoletta Lomuto, 2004. "Mixed signals among tests for cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 89-98.
  53. Henriques, Irene & Sadorsky, Perry, 2008. "Oil prices and the stock prices of alternative energy companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 998-1010, May.
  54. Park, Jungwook & Ratti, Ronald A., 2008. "Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2587-2608, September.
  55. He, Yanan & Wang, Shouyang & Lai, Kin Keung, 2010. "Global economic activity and crude oil prices: A cointegration analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 868-876, July.
  56. Lutz Kilian, 2008. "Exogenous Oil Supply Shocks: How Big Are They and How Much Do They Matter for the U.S. Economy?," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 90(2), pages 216-240, May.
  57. Shawkat Hammoudeh & Eisa Aleisa, 2004. "Dynamic Relationships among GCC Stock Markets and Nymex Oil Futures," Contemporary Economic Policy, Western Economic Association International, vol. 22(2), pages 250-269, 04.
  58. El-Sharif, Idris & Brown, Dick & Burton, Bruce & Nixon, Bill & Russell, Alex, 2005. "Evidence on the nature and extent of the relationship between oil prices and equity values in the UK," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(6), pages 819-830, November.
  59. Òscar Jordà, 2005. "Estimation and Inference of Impulse Responses by Local Projections," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 161-182, March.
  60. Sadorsky, Perry, 2001. "Risk factors in stock returns of Canadian oil and gas companies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 17-28, January.
  61. Chen, Shiu-Sheng & Chen, Hung-Chyn, 2007. "Oil prices and real exchange rates," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 390-404, May.
  62. Lars Peter Hansen & Thomas J. Sargent, 1979. "Formulating and estimating dynamic linear rational expectations models," Working Papers 127, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  63. Herrera, Ana María & Pesavento, Elena, 2009. "Oil Price Shocks, Systematic Monetary Policy, And The “Great Moderation”," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 13(01), pages 107-137, February.
Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

This item is not listed on Wikipedia, on a reading list or among the top items on IDEAS.

When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:otg:wpaper:1014. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Janet Bryant)

If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.

If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.

If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

This information is provided to you by IDEAS at the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis using RePEc data.