IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/jae/japmet/v11y1996i5p519-38.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Co-integration Constraint and Forecasting: An Empirical Examination

Author

Listed:
  • Lin, Jin-Lung
  • Tsay, Ruey S

Abstract

Does co-integration help long-term forecasts? In this paper, we use simulation, real data sets, and multi-step-ahead post-sample forecasts to study this question. Based on the square root of the trace of forecasting error-covariance matrix, we found that for simulated data imposing the 'correct' unit-root constraints implied by co-integration does improve the accuracy of forecasts. For real data sets, the answer is mixed. Imposing unit-root constraints suggested by co-integration tests produces better forecasts for some cases, but fares poorly for others. We give some explanations for the poor performance of co-integration in long-term forecasting and discuss the practical implications of the study. Finally, an adaptive forecasting procedure is found to perform well in one- to ten-step-ahead forecasts. Copyright 1996 by John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin, Jin-Lung & Tsay, Ruey S, 1996. "Co-integration Constraint and Forecasting: An Empirical Examination," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(5), pages 519-538, Sept.-Oct.
  • Handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:11:y:1996:i:5:p:519-38
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://links.jstor.org/sici?sici=0883-7252%28199609%2F199610%2911%3A5%3C519%3ACCAFAE%3E2.0.CO%3B2-F&origin=bc
    File Function: full text
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to JSTOR subscribers. See http://www.jstor.org for details.

    File URL: http://qed.econ.queensu.ca:80/jae/1996-v11.5/
    File Function: Supporting data files and programs
    Download Restriction: no

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:jae:japmet:v:11:y:1996:i:5:p:519-38. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Wiley-Blackwell Digital Licensing) or (Christopher F. Baum). General contact details of provider: http://www.interscience.wiley.com/jpages/0883-7252/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.