Making a match: combining theory and evidence in policy-oriented macroeconomic modelling
A persistent question arising in the development of models for the analysis of macroeconomic policy has been the relative role of economic theory and evidence (data) in their construction. This paper looks at some strategies for transforming a Conceptual Model to become a Data-Adjusted Model, and how to adjust further to an Operational Model for policy analysis. Using a typical dynamic GE small open economy calibrated to UK data, we examine how some simple but formal econometric tests can be applied to test the match of the CM to the data. We also use the CM as a laboratory to assess model-building strategies. Our example suggests that, since one will never be sure that the choice of variables is appropriate, it is better to start with a CM and work towards making it match the data than attempting the converse
|Date of creation:||11 Nov 2005|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://comp-econ.org/|
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2002.
"Closing Small Open Economy Models,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
3096, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," Departmental Working Papers 200115, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," NBER Working Papers 9270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Pagan, A.R. & Robertson, J.C., 1995.
"Structural Models of the Liquidity Effect,"
283, Australian National University - Department of Economics.
- Ireland, Peter N., 2004.
"A method for taking models to the data,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 1205-1226, March.
- Peter Ireland, 1999. "A Method for Taking Models to the Data," Computing in Economics and Finance 1999 1233, Society for Computational Economics.
- Peter N. Ireland, 1999. "A method for taking models to the data," Working Paper 9903, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to replicate Ireland's JEDC 2004 estimation of DSGE model," Statistical Software Components RTZ00104, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Peter N. Ireland, 1999. "A Method for Taking Models to the Data," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 421, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
- Mario Forni & Domenico Giannone & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2007.
"Opening the Black Box: Structural Factor Models with Large Cross-Sections,"
Center for Economic Research (RECent)
008, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
- Forni, Mario & Giannone, Domenico & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2009. "Opening The Black Box: Structural Factor Models With Large Cross Sections," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(05), pages 1319-1347, October.
- Mario Forni & Domenico Giannone & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008. "Opening the Black Box: Structural Factor Models with Large Cross-Sections," Working Papers ECARES 2008_036, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Forni, Mario & Giannone, Domenico & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2007. "Opening the black box: structural factor models with large cross-sections," Working Paper Series 0712, European Central Bank.
- Vahid, Farshid & Issler, João Victor, 2001.
"The Importance of Common Cyclical Features in VAR Analysis: A Monte-Carlo Study,"
Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE)
417, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
- Vahid, Farshid & Issler, Joao Victor, 2002. "The importance of common cyclical features in VAR analysis: a Monte-Carlo study," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 341-363, August.
- Vahid, F. & Issler, J.V., 2001. "The Importance Of Common Cyclical Features in VAR Analysis: A Monte-Carlo Study," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 2/01, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & Mohammad Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2001.
"A long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK,"
ESE Discussion Papers
35, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2003. "A Long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 412-455, 04.
- Garratt, A. & Lee, K. & Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1998. "A Long-run Structural Macro-econometric Model of the UK," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9812, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Gali, Jordi, 1996. "Unemployment in dynamic general equilibrium economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 839-845, April.
- Altug, Sumru, 1989.
"Time-to-Build and Aggregate Fluctuations: Some New Evidence,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(4), pages 889-920, November.
- Sumru Altug, 1986. "Time to build and aggregate fluctuations: some new evidence," Working Papers 277, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Stephen Murchison & Andrew Rennison & Zhenhua Zhu, 2004. "A Structural Small Open-Economy Model for Canada," Working Papers 04-4, Bank of Canada.
- Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1996.
"Factor-Hoarding and the Propagation of Business-Cycle Shocks,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1154-74, December.
- Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum, 1994. "Factor Hoarding and the Propagation of Business Cycles Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 1987. "Monopolistic Competition and the Effects of Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 647-66, September.
- Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, June.
- Wallis, Kenneth F, 1977. "Multiple Time Series Analysis and the Final Form of Econometric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(6), pages 1481-97, September.
- Robert F. Engle & Sharon Kozicki, 1990.
"Testing For Common Features,"
NBER Technical Working Papers
0091, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Binder,M. & Pesaran,H.M., 1995.
"Multivariate Rational Expectations Models and Macroeconomic Modelling: A Review and Some New Results,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9415, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Michael Binder & M. Hashem Pesaran, 1994. "GAUSS and Matlab codes for Multivariate Rational Expectations Models and Macroeconometric Modelling: A Review and Some New Results," QM&RBC Codes 74, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- ZELLNER, Arnold & PALM, Franz, .
"Time series analysis and simultaneous equation econometric models,"
CORE Discussion Papers RP
173, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Zellner, Arnold & Palm, Franz, 1974. "Time series analysis and simultaneous equation econometric models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 17-54, May.
- Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003.
"An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area,"
Journal of the European Economic Association,
MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
- Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002. "An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area," Working Paper Research 35, National Bank of Belgium.
- Coletti, D. & Hunt, B. & Rose, D. & Tetlow, R., 1996. "The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model. Part 3 , the Dynamic Model : QPM," Technical Reports 75, Bank of Canada.
- Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2003. "Opening the Black Box: Structural Factor Models versus Structural VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 4133, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:sce:scecf5:462. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.