Making a match: Combining theory and evidence in policy-oriented macroeconomic modeling
A persistent question arising in the development of models for the analysis of macroeconomic policy has been the relative role of economic theory and evidence (data) in their construction. This paper looks at some strategies for transforming a Conceptual Model to become a Data-Adjusted Model, and how to adjust further to an Operational Model for policy analysis. Using a typical dynamic GE small open economy calibrated to UK data, we examine how some simple but formal econometric tests can be applied to test the match of the CM to the data. We also use the CM as a laboratory to assess model-building strategies. Our example suggests that, since one will never be sure that the choice of variables is appropriate, it is better to start with a CM and work towards making it match the data than attempting the converse
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993.
"Testing for Common Features,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics,
American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 369-80, October.
- Vahid, Farshid & Issler, Joao Victor, 2002.
"The importance of common cyclical features in VAR analysis: a Monte-Carlo study,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 109(2), pages 341-363, August.
- Vahid, F. & Issler, J.V., 2001. "The Importance Of Common Cyclical Features in VAR Analysis: A Monte-Carlo Study," Monash Econometrics and Business Statistics Working Papers 2/01, Monash University, Department of Econometrics and Business Statistics.
- Vahid, Farshid & Issler, João Victor, 2001. "The importance of common cyclical features in VAR analysis: a Monte-Carlo study," Economics Working Papers (Ensaios Economicos da EPGE) 417, FGV/EPGE Escola Brasileira de Economia e Finanças, Getulio Vargas Foundation (Brazil).
- Engle, Robert F & Kozicki, Sharon, 1993. "Testing for Common Features: Reply," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 11(4), pages 393-95, October.
- Binder,M. & Pesaran,H.M., 1995.
"Multivariate Rational Expectations Models and Macroeconomic Modelling: A Review and Some New Results,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
9415, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Michael Binder & M. Hashem Pesaran, 1994. "GAUSS and Matlab codes for Multivariate Rational Expectations Models and Macroeconometric Modelling: A Review and Some New Results," QM&RBC Codes 74, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2002.
"An estimated dynamic stochastic general equilibrium model of the euro area,"
Working Paper Research
35, National Bank of Belgium.
- Frank Smets & Raf Wouters, 2003. "An Estimated Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium Model of the Euro Area," Journal of the European Economic Association, MIT Press, vol. 1(5), pages 1123-1175, 09.
- Schmitt-Grohe, Stephanie & Uribe, Martin, 2003.
"Closing small open economy models,"
Journal of International Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 61(1), pages 163-185, October.
- Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2001. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," Departmental Working Papers 200115, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," NBER Working Papers 9270, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Schmitt-Grohé, Stephanie & Uribe, Martín, 2002. "Closing Small Open Economy Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 3096, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
- A. R. Pagan & J. C. Robertson, 1998.
"Structural Models Of The Liquidity Effect,"
The Review of Economics and Statistics,
MIT Press, vol. 80(2), pages 202-217, May.
- Zellner, Arnold & Palm, Franz, 1974.
"Time series analysis and simultaneous equation econometric models,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 2(1), pages 17-54, May.
- ZELLNER, Arnold & PALM, Franz, . "Time series analysis and simultaneous equation econometric models," CORE Discussion Papers RP 173, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
- Gali, Jordi, 1996. "Unemployment in dynamic general equilibrium economies," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 40(3-5), pages 839-845, April.
- Mario Forni & Domenico Giannone & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2008.
"Opening the Black Box: Structural Factor Models with Large Cross-Sections,"
Working Papers ECARES
2008_036, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
- Forni, Mario & Giannone, Domenico & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2009. "Opening The Black Box: Structural Factor Models With Large Cross Sections," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 25(05), pages 1319-1347, October.
- Mario Forni & Domenico Giannone & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2007. "Opening the Black Box: Structural Factor Models with Large Cross-Sections," Center for Economic Research (RECent) 008, University of Modena and Reggio E., Dept. of Economics "Marco Biagi".
- Forni, Mario & Giannone, Domenico & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2007. "Opening the black box: structural factor models with large cross-sections," Working Paper Series 0712, European Central Bank.
- Burnside, Craig & Eichenbaum, Martin, 1996.
"Factor-Hoarding and the Propagation of Business-Cycle Shocks,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 86(5), pages 1154-74, December.
- Craig Burnside & Martin Eichenbaum, 1994. "Factor Hoarding and the Propagation of Business Cycles Shocks," NBER Working Papers 4675, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Sumru Altug, 1986.
"Time to build and aggregate fluctuations: some new evidence,"
277, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
- Altug, Sumru, 1989. "Time-to-Build and Aggregate Fluctuations: Some New Evidence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 30(4), pages 889-920, November.
- Michael P. Clements & David F. Hendry, 2001. "Forecasting Non-Stationary Economic Time Series," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262531895, December.
- Peter Ireland, 1999.
"A Method for Taking Models to the Data,"
Computing in Economics and Finance 1999
1233, Society for Computational Economics.
- Peter N. Ireland, 1999. "A Method for Taking Models to the Data," Boston College Working Papers in Economics 421, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Peter N. Ireland, 1999. "A method for taking models to the data," Working Paper 9903, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
- Peter Ireland, 1999. "Matlab code for A Method for Taking Models to the Data," QM&RBC Codes 46, Quantitative Macroeconomics & Real Business Cycles.
- Coletti, D. & Hunt, B. & Rose, D. & Tetlow, R., 1996. "The Bank of Canada's New Quarterly Projection Model. Part 3 , the Dynamic Model : QPM," Technical Reports 75, Bank of Canada.
- Wallis, Kenneth F, 1977. "Multiple Time Series Analysis and the Final Form of Econometric Models," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 45(6), pages 1481-97, September.
- Rotemberg, Julio J, 1982. "Sticky Prices in the United States," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 90(6), pages 1187-1211, December.
- Stephen Murchison & Andrew Rennison & Zhenhua Zhu, 2004. "A Structural Small Open-Economy Model for Canada," Staff Working Papers 04-4, Bank of Canada.
- Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & Mohammad Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2001.
"A long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK,"
ESE Discussion Papers
35, Edinburgh School of Economics, University of Edinburgh.
- Anthony Garratt & Kevin Lee & M. Hashem Pesaran & Yongcheol Shin, 2003. "A Long run structural macroeconometric model of the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 113(487), pages 412-455, 04.
- Garratt, A. & Lee, K. & Pesaran, M. H. & Shin, Y., 1998. "A Long-run Structural Macro-econometric Model of the UK," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 9812, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kiyotaki, Nobuhiro, 1987. "Monopolistic Competition and the Effects of Aggregate Demand," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 77(4), pages 647-66, September.
- Forni, Mario & Lippi, Marco & Reichlin, Lucrezia, 2003. "Opening the Black Box: Structural Factor Models versus Structural VARs," CEPR Discussion Papers 4133, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:econom:v:136:y:2007:i:2:p:565-594. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Shamier, Wendy)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.