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Issues in Adopting DSGE Models for Use in the Policy Process

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  • Martin Fukac
  • Adrian Pagan

Abstract

Our discussion is structured by three concerns - model design, matching the data and operational requirements. The paper begins with a general discussion of the structure of dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models where we investigate issues like (i) the type of restrictions being imposed by DSGE models upon system dynamics, (ii) the implication these models would have for 'location parameters', viz. growth rates, and (iii) whether these models can track the long-run movements in variables as well as matching dynamic adjustment. The paper further looks at the types of models that have been constructed in central banks for macro policy analysis. We distinguish four generations of these and detail how the emerging current generation, which are often referred to as DSGE models, differs from the previous generations. The last part of the paper is devoted to a variety of topics involving estimation and evaluation of DSGE models.

Suggested Citation

  • Martin Fukac & Adrian Pagan, 2006. "Issues in Adopting DSGE Models for Use in the Policy Process," Working Papers 2006/6, Czech National Bank, Research Department.
  • Handle: RePEc:cnb:wpaper:2006/6
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Huseynov, Salman & Mammadov, Fuad, 2016. "A small scale forecasting and simulation model for Azerbaijan (FORSAZ)," MPRA Paper 76348, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    2. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2017. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models Redux: New Developments and Challenges Ahead," Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, Journal of Artificial Societies and Social Simulation, vol. 20(1), pages 1-1.
    3. Lees, Kirdan & Matheson, Troy & Smith, Christie, 2011. "Open economy forecasting with a DSGE-VAR: Head to head with the RBNZ published forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 512-528.
    4. Luciano Vereda & Marco A. F. H. Cavalcanti, 2010. "Modelo Dinâmico Estocástico de Equilíbrio Geral (DSGE) Para a Economia Brasileira: Versão 1," Discussion Papers 1479, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    5. Giorgio Fagiolo & Andrea Roventini, 2012. "Macroeconomic Policy in DSGE and Agent-Based Models," Revue de l'OFCE, Presses de Sciences-Po, vol. 0(5), pages 67-116.
    6. Dosi, Giovanni & Fagiolo, Giorgio & Roventini, Andrea, 2010. "Schumpeter meeting Keynes: A policy-friendly model of endogenous growth and business cycles," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 34(9), pages 1748-1767, September.
    7. Hall, Jamie & Pitt, Michael K. & Kohn, Robert, 2014. "Bayesian inference for nonlinear structural time series models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 179(2), pages 99-111.
    8. Carlo A. Favero, 2007. "The Econometrics of Monetary Policy: an Overview," Working Papers 329, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    9. Thorvardur Tjörvi Ólafsson, 2006. "The New Keynesian Phillips Curve: In Search of Improvements and Adaptation to the Open Economy," Economics wp31_tjorvi, Department of Economics, Central bank of Iceland.
    10. Andrés González Gómez & Lavan Mahadeva & Diego Rodríguez & Luis Eduardo Rojas, 2009. "Monetary Policy Forecasting in a DSGE Model with Data that is Uncertain, Unbalanced and About the Future," Borradores de Economia 559, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    11. Katarzyna Budnik & Michal Greszta & Michal Hulej & Marcin Kolasa & Karol Murawski & Michal Rot & Bartosz Rybaczyk & Magdalena Tarnicka, 2009. "The new macroeconometric model of the Polish economy," NBP Working Papers 62, Narodowy Bank Polski, Economic Research Department.
    12. Guerini, Mattia & Moneta, Alessio, 2017. "A method for agent-based models validation," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 82(C), pages 125-141.
    13. Farmer, Roger E.A. & Waggoner, Daniel F. & Zha, Tao, 2011. "Minimal state variable solutions to Markov-switching rational expectations models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(12), pages 2150-2166.
    14. Philip Liu, 2010. "The Effects of International Shocks on Australia's Business Cycle," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 86(275), pages 486-503, December.
    15. Andrew Harvey, 2011. "Modelling the Phillips curve with unobserved components," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(1-2), pages 7-17.
    16. Sofía Bauducco & Aleš Bulir & Martin Èihák, 2011. "Monetary Policy Rules with Financial Instability," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 61(6), pages 545-565, December.
    17. Kirdan Lees & Troy Matheson & Christie Smith, 2007. "Open economy DSGE-VAR forecasting and policy analysis - head to head with the RBNZ published forecasts," Reserve Bank of New Zealand Discussion Paper Series DP2007/01, Reserve Bank of New Zealand.
    18. Fabio Bacchini & Cristina Brandimarte & Piero Crivelli & Roberta De Santis & Marco Fioramanti & Alessandro Girardi & Roberto Golinelli & Cecilia Jona-Lasinio & Massimo Mancini & Carmine Pappalardo & D, 2013. "Building the core of the Istat system of models for forecasting the Italian economy: MeMo-It," Rivista di statistica ufficiale, ISTAT - Italian National Institute of Statistics - (Rome, ITALY), vol. 15(1), pages 17-45.
    19. G. Fagiolo & A. Roventini., 2009. "On the Scientific Status of Economic Policy: A Tale of Alternative Paradigms," VOPROSY ECONOMIKI, N.P. Redaktsiya zhurnala "Voprosy Economiki", vol. 6.
    20. Martin Cihak & Ales Bulir & Sofía Bauducco, 2008. "Taylor Rule Under Financial Instability," IMF Working Papers 08/18, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Tovar, Camilo Ernesto, 2009. "DSGE Models and Central Banks," Economics - The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW), vol. 3, pages 1-31.
    22. Philip Liu, 2007. "Stabilizing The Australian Business Cycle: Good Luck Or Good Policy?," CAMA Working Papers 2007-24, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
    23. Marco A. F. H. Cavalcanti & Luciano Vereda, 2011. "Propriedades Dinâmicas de Um Modelo DSGE Com Parametrizações Alternativas Para o Brasil," Discussion Papers 1588, Instituto de Pesquisa Econômica Aplicada - IPEA.
    24. Gnidchenko, Andrey, 2011. "Моделирование Технологических И Институциональных Эффектов В Макроэкономическом Прогнозировании
      [Technological and Institutional Effects Modeling in Macroeconomic Forecasting]
      ," MPRA Paper 35484, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised May 2011.
    25. Philip Liu, 2008. "The Role of International Shocks in Australia’s Business Cycle," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp2008-08, Reserve Bank of Australia.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    DSGE model; Bayesian estimation; model evaluation.;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection

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