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Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence

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  • Stavros Degiannakis, George Filis, and Vipin Arora

Abstract

Do oil prices and stock markets move in tandem or in opposite directions? The complex and time varying relationship between oil prices and stock markets has caught the attention of the financial press, investors, policymakers, researchers, and the general public in recent years. In light of such attention, this paper reviews research on the oil price and stock market relationship. The majority of papers we survey study the impacts of oil markets on stock markets, whereas, little research in the reverse direction exists. Our review finds that the causal effects between oil and stock markets depend heavily on whether research is performed using aggregate stock market indices, sectorial indices, or firm-level data and whether stock markets operate in net oil-importing or net oil-exporting countries. Additionally, conclusions vary depending on whether studies use symmetric or asymmetric changes in the price of oil, or whether they focus on unexpected changes in oil prices. Finally, we find that most studies show oil price volatility transmits to stock market volatility, and that including measures of stock market performance improves forecasts of oil prices and oil price volatility. Several important avenues for further research are identified

Suggested Citation

  • Stavros Degiannakis, George Filis, and Vipin Arora, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
  • Handle: RePEc:aen:journl:ej39-5-filis
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    Cited by:

    1. Jean-Thomas Bernard & Maral Kichian, 2017. "Carbon Tax Saliency: The Case of B.C. Diesel Demand," Working Papers 1718E, University of Ottawa, Department of Economics.
    2. Saban Nazlioglu & Rangan Gupta & Elie Bouri, 2019. "Movements in International Bond Markets: The Role of Oil Prices," Working Papers 201935, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
    3. Saban Nazlioglu & Rangan Gupta & Alper Gormus & Ugur Soytas, 2019. "Price and Volatility Linkages between International REITs and Oil Markets," Working Papers 201954, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.

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