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How Does Stock Market Volatility React to Oil Shocks?

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  • Andrea BASTIANIN
  • Matteo MANERA

Abstract

We study the impact of oil price shocks on stock market volatility. We derive three different structural oil shock variables (i.e. aggregate demand, oil-supply, and oil-demand shocks) and relate them to stock market volatility using bivariate structural VAR models, one for each oil price shock. Identification is achieved by assuming that the price of crude oil reacts to stock market volatility only with delay. This implies that innovations to the price of crude oil are not strictly exogenous, but predetermined with respect to the stock market. We show that volatility responds significantly to oil price shocks caused by sudden changes in aggregate and oil-specific demand, while the impact of supply-side shocks is negligible.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea BASTIANIN & Matteo MANERA, 2015. "How Does Stock Market Volatility React to Oil Shocks?," Departmental Working Papers 2015-09, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
  • Handle: RePEc:mil:wpdepa:2015-09
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    Cited by:

    1. Dash, Devi Prasad & Sethi, Narayan & Bal, Debi Prasad, 2018. "Is the demand for crude oil inelastic for India? Evidence from structural VAR analysis," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 552-558.
    2. Tiwari, Aviral Kumar & Trabelsi, Nader & Alqahtani, Faisal & Raheem, Ibrahim D., 2020. "Systemic risk spillovers between crude oil and stock index returns of G7 economies: Conditional value-at-risk and marginal expected shortfall approaches," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 86(C).
    3. Känzig, Diego Raoul, 2020. "The macroeconomic effects of oil supply news: Evidence from OPEC announcements," MPRA Paper 106249, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    4. Sek, Siok Kun, 2019. "Unveiling the factors of oil versus non-oil sources in affecting the global commodity prices: A combination of threshold and asymmetric modeling approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 176(C), pages 272-280.
    5. Chun, Dohyun & Cho, Hoon & Ryu, Doojin, 2020. "Economic indicators and stock market volatility in an emerging economy," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 44(2).
    6. Bastianin, Andrea & Conti, Francesca & Manera, Matteo, 2016. "The impacts of oil price shocks on stock market volatility: Evidence from the G7 countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 160-169.
    7. Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Manera, Matteo, 2017. "Oil supply shocks and economic growth in the Mediterranean," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 167-175.
    8. Dragomirescu-Gaina, Catalin & Galariotis, Emilios & Philippas, Dionisis, 2021. "Chasing the ‘green bandwagon’ in times of uncertainty," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
    9. Andrea Bucci & Giulio Palomba & Eduardo Rossi, 2019. "Does macroeconomics help in predicting stock markets volatility comovements? A nonlinear approach," Working Papers 440, Universita' Politecnica delle Marche (I), Dipartimento di Scienze Economiche e Sociali.
    10. Silvia Goncalves & Ana María Herrera & Lutz Kilian & Elena Pesavento, 2020. "Impulse Response Analysis for Structural Dynamic Models with Nonlinear Regressors," Working Papers 2019, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas.
    11. Jochen Güntner & Johannes Henßler, 2020. "Exogenous oil supply shocks in OPEC and non-OPEC countries," Economics working papers 2020-02, Department of Economics, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    12. Ahmadi, Maryam & Bashiri Behmiri, Niaz & Manera, Matteo, 2016. "How is volatility in commodity markets linked to oil price shocks?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 11-23.
    13. Stavros Degiannakis, George Filis, and Vipin Arora, 2018. "Oil Prices and Stock Markets: A Review of the Theory and Empirical Evidence," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 5).
    14. Lutz Kilian & Xiaoqing Zhou, 2020. "The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models," CESifo Working Paper Series 8153, CESifo.
    15. Andrea BASTIANIN & Francesca CONTI & Matteo MANERA, 2015. "The Impacts of Oil Price Shocks on Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from the G7 Countries," Departmental Working Papers 2015-17, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    16. Alquist, Ron & Bhattarai, Saroj & Coibion, Olivier, 2020. "Commodity-price comovement and global economic activity," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 41-56.
    17. Arendt, Rosalie & Muhl, Marco & Bach, Vanessa & Finkbeiner, Matthias, 2020. "Criticality assessment of abiotic resource use for Europe– application of the SCARCE method," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 67(C).
    18. Salisu, Afees A. & Gupta, Rangan, 2021. "Oil shocks and stock market volatility of the BRICS: A GARCH-MIDAS approach," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 48(C).
    19. Bahram Adrangi & Arjun Chatrath & Joseph Macri & Kambiz Raffiee, 2021. "Dynamics of crude oil price shocks and major Latin American Equity Markets: A study in time and frequency domains," Bulletin of Economic Research, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 73(3), pages 432-455, July.
    20. Zhenhua Liu & Zhihua Ding & Tao Lv & Jy S. Wu & Wei Qiang, 2019. "Financial factors affecting oil price change and oil-stock interactions: a review and future perspectives," Natural Hazards: Journal of the International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, Springer;International Society for the Prevention and Mitigation of Natural Hazards, vol. 95(1), pages 207-225, January.
    21. Boako, Gideon & Alagidede, Paul, 2016. "Global commodities and African stocks: A ‘market of one?’," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 226-237.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Volatility; Oil Shocks; Oil Price; Stock Prices; Structural VAR;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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