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How Does Stock Market Volatility React to Oil Shocks?

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  • Andrea BASTIANIN

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  • Matteo MANERA

    ()

Abstract

We study the impact of oil price shocks on stock market volatility. We derive three different structural oil shock variables (i.e. aggregate demand, oil-supply, and oil-demand shocks) and relate them to stock market volatility using bivariate structural VAR models, one for each oil price shock. Identification is achieved by assuming that the price of crude oil reacts to stock market volatility only with delay. This implies that innovations to the price of crude oil are not strictly exogenous, but predetermined with respect to the stock market. We show that volatility responds significantly to oil price shocks caused by sudden changes in aggregate and oil-specific demand, while the impact of supply-side shocks is negligible.

Suggested Citation

  • Andrea BASTIANIN & Matteo MANERA, 2015. "How Does Stock Market Volatility React to Oil Shocks?," Departmental Working Papers 2015-09, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
  • Handle: RePEc:mil:wpdepa:2015-09
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    Cited by:

    1. repec:eee:enepol:v:110:y:2017:i:c:p:167-175 is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Andrea BASTIANIN & Francesca CONTI & Matteo MANERA, 2015. "The Impacts of Oil Price Shocks on Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from the G7 Countries," Departmental Working Papers 2015-17, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    3. Bastianin, Andrea & Conti, Francesca & Manera, Matteo, 2016. "The impacts of oil price shocks on stock market volatility: Evidence from the G7 countries," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 160-169.
    4. Ron Alquist & Olivier Coibion, 2014. "Commodity Price Co-Movement and Global Economic Activity," Staff Working Papers 14-32, Bank of Canada.
    5. Bastianin, Andrea & Galeotti, Marzio & Manera, Matteo, 2017. "Oil supply shocks and economic growth in the Mediterranean," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 167-175.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Volatility; Oil Shocks; Oil Price; Stock Prices; Structural VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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