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The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Stock Market Return and Volatility Relationship

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  • Wensheng Kang
  • Ronald A. Ratti
  • Kyung Hwan Yoon

Abstract

This paper examines the impact of structural oil price shocks on the covariance of U.S. stock market return and stock market volatility. We construct from daily data on return and volatility the covariance of return and volatility at monthly frequency. The measures of daily volatility are realized-volatility at high frequency (normalized squared return), conditional-volatility recovered from a stochastic volatility model, and implied-volatility deduced from options prices. Positive shocks to aggregate demand and to oil-market specific demand are associated with negative effects on the covariance of return and volatility. Oil supply disruptions are associated with positive effects on the covariance of return and volatility. The spillover index between the structural oil price shocks and covariance of stock return and volatility is large and highly statistically significant.

Suggested Citation

  • Wensheng Kang & Ronald A. Ratti & Kyung Hwan Yoon, 2014. "The Impact of Oil Price Shocks on the Stock Market Return and Volatility Relationship," CAMA Working Papers 2014-71, Centre for Applied Macroeconomic Analysis, Crawford School of Public Policy, The Australian National University.
  • Handle: RePEc:een:camaaa:2014-71
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Stock return and volatility; oil price shocks; stock volatility; structural VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)
    • Q41 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Demand and Supply; Prices
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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