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Uncertainty determinants of firm investment


  • Baum, Christopher F.
  • Caglayan, Mustafa
  • Talavera, Oleksandr


We investigate the impact of measures of uncertainty on firms' capital investment behavior using a panel of U.S. firms. Increases in firm-specific and CAPM-based measures have a significant negative effect on investment spending, while market-based uncertainty has a positive impact.

Suggested Citation

  • Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa & Talavera, Oleksandr, 2008. "Uncertainty determinants of firm investment," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 98(3), pages 282-287, March.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:ecolet:v:98:y:2008:i:3:p:282-287

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Michael Salinger & Lawrence H. Summers, 1983. "Tax Reform and Corporate Investment: A Microeconometric Simulation Study," NBER Chapters,in: Behavioral Simulation Methods in Tax Policy Analysis, pages 247-288 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    2. Christopher F. Baum & Mustafa Caglayan & Neslihan Ozkan, 2004. "Nonlinear effects of exchange rate volatility on the volume of bilateral exports," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 19(1), pages 1-23.
    3. Luigi Guiso & Giuseppe Parigi, 1999. "Investment and Demand Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(1), pages 185-227.
    4. Ghosal, Vivek & Loungani, Prakash, 1996. "Product Market Competition and the Impact of Price Uncertainty on Investment: Some Evidence from US Manufacturing Industries," Journal of Industrial Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 44(2), pages 217-228, June.
    5. Henley, Andrew & Carruth, Alan & Dickerson, Andy, 2003. "Industry-wide versus firm-specific uncertainty and investment: British company panel data evidence," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 78(1), pages 87-92, January.
    6. William C. Brainard & John B. Shoven & Laurence Weiss, 1980. "The Financial Valuation of the Return to Capital," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 11(2), pages 453-512.
    7. Stephen R. Bond & Jason G. Cummins, 2004. "Uncertainty and investment: an empirical investigation using data on analysts' profits forecasts," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2004-20, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Nicolas Bloom & Stephen Bond & John Van Reenen, 2001. "The dynamics of investment under uncertainty," IFS Working Papers W01/05, Institute for Fiscal Studies.
    9. Leahy, John V & Whited, Toni M, 1996. "The Effect of Uncertainty on Investment: Some Stylized Facts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 28(1), pages 64-83, February.
    10. Brainard, William C. & Shoven, John B., 1980. "The financial valuation of the return to capital," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue 4, pages 43-104.
    11. Paul Beaudry & Mustafa Caglayan & Fabio Schiantarelli, 2001. "Monetary Instability, the Predictability of Prices, and the Allocation of Investment: An Empirical Investigation Using U.K. Panel Data," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(3), pages 648-662, June.
    12. Calcagnini, Giorgio & Saltari, Enrico, 2001. "Investment and uncertainty: is there a potential role for a common European policy?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 72(1), pages 61-65, July.
    13. Merton, Robert C., 1980. "On estimating the expected return on the market : An exploratory investigation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 323-361, December.
    14. Manuel Arellano & Stephen Bond, 1991. "Some Tests of Specification for Panel Data: Monte Carlo Evidence and an Application to Employment Equations," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(2), pages 277-297.
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    Cited by:

    1. Baum, Christopher F. & Caglayan, Mustafa & Talavera, Oleksandr, 2010. "On the investment sensitivity of debt under uncertainty," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 25-27, January.
    2. Toole, Andrew A. & Czarnitzki, Dirk, 2008. "The R&D Investment-Uncertainty Relationship: Do Competition and Firm Size Matter?," ZEW Discussion Papers 08-013, ZEW - Zentrum für Europäische Wirtschaftsforschung / Center for European Economic Research.
    3. Katrin Hussinger & Sebastian Pacher, 2015. "Information ambiguity and firm value," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 22(10), pages 843-847, July.
    4. Claudiu Botoc & Cosmin Enache, 2013. "Underinvestment Problem: Romanian Evidence," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 2(15), pages 1-20.
    5. Panousi, Vasia & Papanikolaou, Dimitris, 2009. "Investment, idiosyncratic risk, and ownership," MPRA Paper 24239, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    6. Francesco Aiello & Alfonsina Iona & Leone Leonida, 2012. "Regional infrastructure and firm investment: theory and empirical evidence for Italy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 42(3), pages 835-862, June.
    7. Kang, Wensheng & Ratti, Ronald A. & Yoon, Kyung Hwan, 2015. "The impact of oil price shocks on the stock market return and volatility relationship," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 34(C), pages 41-54.
    8. repec:taf:applec:v:49:y:2017:i:45:p:4521-4529 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Kang, Wensheng & Lee, Kiseok & Ratti, Ronald A., 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty and firm-level investment," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 42-53.
    10. Stavros Degiannakis & George Filis & George Palaiodimos, 2017. "Investments and uncertainty revisited: the case of the US economy," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(45), pages 4521-4529, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • C23 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Single Equation Models; Single Variables - - - Models with Panel Data; Spatio-temporal Models


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