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Economic policy uncertainty and firm-level investment

Author Info

  • Kang, Wensheng
  • Lee, Kiseok
  • Ratti, Ronald A.

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of economic policy uncertainty and its components on firm-level investment. It is found that economic policy uncertainty in interaction with firm-level uncertainty depresses firms’ investment decisions. When firms are in doubt about costs of doing business due to possible changes in regulation, cost of health care and taxes, they become more guarded with investment plans. The effect of economic policy uncertainty on firm-level investment is greater for firms with higher firm-level uncertainty and during a recession. News-based policy shock has a significantly negative long-term effect on firms’ investment. Federal expenditure forecast interquartile range shock has a significant negative effect in the short- and long-run. Policy uncertainty does not seem to influence the investment decisions of the very largest firms (about 20% of listed firms).

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 39 (2014)
Issue (Month): PA ()
Pages: 42-53

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:39:y:2014:i:pa:p:42-53
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617

Keywords: Policy uncertainty; Firm investment; Stock price volatility;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
  • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
  • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

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Cited by:

  1. Fabio Bacchini & Maria Elena Bontempi & Roberto Golinelli & Cecilia Jona-Lasinio, 2014. "ICT and Non-ICT investments: short and long run macro dynamics," Working Papers LuissLab 14113, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
  2. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-547 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Andreas Dibiasi & Garret Binding, 2016. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Firm Investment Plans: Evidence from Swiss Survey Data," KOF Working papers 16-400, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  4. Joong Shik Kang, 2016. "Private Sector Activity in Hong Kong SAR and the Fed; Transmission Effects through the Currency Board," IMF Working Papers 16/35, International Monetary Fund.
  5. Yang, Miao & Jiang, Zhi-Qiang, 2016. "The dynamic correlation between policy uncertainty and stock market returns in China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 461(C), pages 92-100.
  6. Mohamed Arouri & David Roubaud, 2016. "On the determinants of stock market dynamics in emerging countries: the role of economic policy uncertainty in China and India," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 760-770.
  7. Klaus Abberger & Andreas Dibiasi & Michael Siegenthaler & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2016. "The Effect of Policy Uncertainty on Investment Plans: Evidence from the Unexpected Acceptance of a Far-Reaching Referendum in Switzerland," CESifo Working Paper Series 5887, CESifo Group Munich.
  8. Zhang, Guangli & Han, Jianlei & Pan, Zheyao & Huang, Haozhi, 2015. "Economic policy uncertainty and capital structure choice: Evidence from China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 439-457.
  9. Joong S Kang & Shi Piao, 2015. "Production Offshoring and Investment by Japanese Firms," IMF Working Papers 15/183, International Monetary Fund.
  10. Mohamed Arouri & Christophe Rault & Frédéric Teulon, 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty, oil price shocks and GCC stock markets," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(3), pages 1822-1834.
  11. Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Forecasting Equity Premium in a Panel of OECD Countries: The Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers 201622, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  12. Bernal, Oscar & Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Guilmin, Grégory, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and risk spillovers in the Eurozone," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 24-45.

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