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Economic policy uncertainty and firm-level investment

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Listed author(s):
  • Kang, Wensheng
  • Lee, Kiseok
  • Ratti, Ronald A.

Abstract

This paper examines the effect of economic policy uncertainty and its components on firm-level investment. It is found that economic policy uncertainty in interaction with firm-level uncertainty depresses firms’ investment decisions. When firms are in doubt about costs of doing business due to possible changes in regulation, cost of health care and taxes, they become more guarded with investment plans. The effect of economic policy uncertainty on firm-level investment is greater for firms with higher firm-level uncertainty and during a recession. News-based policy shock has a significantly negative long-term effect on firms’ investment. Federal expenditure forecast interquartile range shock has a significant negative effect in the short- and long-run. Policy uncertainty does not seem to influence the investment decisions of the very largest firms (about 20% of listed firms).

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Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Journal of Macroeconomics.

Volume (Year): 39 (2014)
Issue (Month): PA ()
Pages: 42-53

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Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:39:y:2014:i:pa:p:42-53
DOI: 10.1016/j.jmacro.2013.10.006
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/inca/622617

Keywords: Policy uncertainty; Firm investment; Stock price volatility;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
  • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
  • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies

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Cited by:

  1. F. Bacchini & M. E. Bontempi & R. Golinelli & C. Jona Lasinio, 2014. "ICT and Non-ICT investments: short and long run macro dynamics," Working Papers wp956, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
  2. Bekiros, Stelios & Gupta, Rangan & Majumdar, Anandamayee, 2016. "Incorporating economic policy uncertainty in US equity premium models: A nonlinear predictability analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 18(C), pages 291-296.
  3. Marina Riem, 2016. "Corporate investment decisions under political uncertainty," Ifo Working Paper Series Ifo Working Paper No. 221, Ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
  4. Mohamed Arouri & David Roubaud, 2016. "On the determinants of stock market dynamics in emerging countries: the role of economic policy uncertainty in China and India," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 36(2), pages 760-770.
  5. Mawuli Segnon & Rangan Gupta & Stelios Bekiros & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "Forecasting US GNP Growth: The Role of Uncertainty," Working Papers 201667, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  6. Rangan Gupta & Amine Lahiani & Chi-Chuan Lee & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2016. "Asymmetric dynamics of insurance premium: The impacts of output and economic policy uncertainty," Working Papers 201673, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  7. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-547 is not listed on IDEAS
  8. Rangan Gupta & Chi Keung Marco Lau & Mark E. Wohar, 2016. "The Impact of US Uncertainty on the Euro Area in Good and Bad Times: Evidence from a Quantile Structural Vector Autoregressive Model," Working Papers 201681, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  9. Yang, Miao & Jiang, Zhi-Qiang, 2016. "The dynamic correlation between policy uncertainty and stock market returns in China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 461(C), pages 92-100.
  10. Christina Christou & Rangan Gupta, 2016. "Forecasting Equity Premium in a Panel of OECD Countries: The Role of Economic Policy Uncertainty," Working Papers 201622, University of Pretoria, Department of Economics.
  11. Bernal, Oscar & Gnabo, Jean-Yves & Guilmin, Grégory, 2016. "Economic policy uncertainty and risk spillovers in the Eurozone," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 65(C), pages 24-45.
  12. Morikawa, Masayuki, 2016. "Business uncertainty and investment: Evidence from Japanese companies," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 224-236.
  13. Joong Shik Kang, 2016. "Private Sector Activity in Hong Kong SAR and the Fed; Transmission Effects through the Currency Board," IMF Working Papers 16/35, .
  14. Andreas Dibiasi & Garret Binding, 2016. "Exchange Rate Uncertainty and Firm Investment Plans: Evidence from Swiss Survey Data," KOF Working papers 16-400, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  15. Joong S Kang & Shi Piao, 2015. "Production Offshoring and Investment by Japanese Firms," IMF Working Papers 15/183, .
  16. Klaus Abberger & Andreas Dibiasi & Michael Siegenthaler & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2016. "The Effect of Policy Uncertainty on Investment Plans: Evidence from the Unexpected Acceptance of a Far-Reaching Referendum in Switzerland," KOF Working papers 16-406, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  17. Zhang, Guangli & Han, Jianlei & Pan, Zheyao & Huang, Haozhi, 2015. "Economic policy uncertainty and capital structure choice: Evidence from China," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 439-457.
  18. Mohamed Arouri & Christophe Rault & Frédéric Teulon, 2014. "Economic policy uncertainty, oil price shocks and GCC stock markets," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 34(3), pages 1822-1834.
  19. Sangyup Choi & Davide Furceri & Yi Huang & Prakash Loungani, 2016. "Aggregate Uncertainty and Sectoral Productivity Growth; The Role of Credit Constraints," IMF Working Papers 16/174, International Monetary Fund.

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