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Commodity-Price Comovement and Global Economic Activity

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  • Ron Alquist
  • Saroj Bhattarai
  • Olivier Coibion

Abstract

Guided by a macroeconomic model in which commodity prices are endogenously determined, we apply a new factor-based identification strategy to decompose the historical sources of changes in commodity prices and global economic activity. The model yields a factor structure for commodity prices and identification conditions that provide the factors with an economic interpretation: one factor captures the combined contribution of shocks that affect commodity markets only through general-equilibrium forces. Applied to a cross-section of commodity prices since 1968, the theoretical restrictions are consistent with the data and yield structural interpretations of the common factors in commodity prices. Commodity-related shocks have contributed modestly to global economic fluctuations.

Suggested Citation

  • Ron Alquist & Saroj Bhattarai & Olivier Coibion, 2014. "Commodity-Price Comovement and Global Economic Activity," NBER Working Papers 20003, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:20003
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    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance

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