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Common factors of commodity prices

Author

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  • Delle Chiaie, Simona
  • Ferrara, Laurent
  • Giannone, Domenico

Abstract

There is a strong co-movement in the prices of international commodities. This is explained by a single common factor that is closely related to fluctuations in global economic activity. The common factor, which is indicative of global demand pressures, explains a large share of commodity price fluctuations, and its importance has increased since the early 2000s, especially for oil and metal prices. JEL Classification: C51, C53, Q02

Suggested Citation

  • Delle Chiaie, Simona & Ferrara, Laurent & Giannone, Domenico, 2018. "Common factors of commodity prices," Research Bulletin, European Central Bank, vol. 51.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbrbu:2018:0051:
    Note: 753337
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    Cited by:

    1. Hilde C. Bjørnland & Julia Zhulanova, 2018. "The Shale Oil Boom and the U.S. Economy: Spillovers and Time-Varying Effects," Working Papers No 8/2018, Centre for Applied Macro- and Petroleum economics (CAMP), BI Norwegian Business School.
    2. Baumeister, Christiane & Guerin, Pierre, 2020. "A Comparison of Monthly Global Indicators for Forecasting Growth," CEPR Discussion Papers 15403, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    3. Vásquez Cordano, Arturo L. & Zellou, Abdel M., 2020. "Super cycles in natural gas prices and their impact on Latin American energy and environmental policies," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    4. Diaz, Elena Maria & Pérez Quirós, Gabriel, 2020. "Daily tracker of global economic activity: a close-up of the COVID-19 pandemic," Working Paper Series 2505, European Central Bank.
    5. Fernández, Andrés & González, Andrés & Rodríguez, Diego, 2018. "Sharing a ride on the commodities roller coaster: Common factors in business cycles of emerging economies," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 99-121.
    6. Lutz Kilian, 2019. "Facts and Fiction in Oil Market Modeling," CESifo Working Paper Series 7902, CESifo.
    7. Federico Di Pace & Luciana Juvenal & Ivan Petrella, 2020. "Terms-of-Trade Shocks are Not all Alike," IMF Working Papers 2020/280, International Monetary Fund.
    8. Christiane Baumeister & Dimitris Korobilis & Thomas K. Lee, 2020. "Energy Markets and Global Economic Conditions," CESifo Working Paper Series 8282, CESifo.
    9. Florentina Paraschiv & Stine Marie Reese & Margrethe Ringkjøb Skjelstad, 2020. "Portfolio stress testing applied to commodity futures," Computational Management Science, Springer, vol. 17(2), pages 203-240, June.
    10. Jakub Rybacki & Tamara Bińczak & Filip Kaczmarek, 2018. "Is HICP really harmonized? Problems with quality adjustments and new products," Collegium of Economic Analysis Annals, Warsaw School of Economics, Collegium of Economic Analysis, issue 53, pages 97-116.
    11. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2018. "Modeling fluctuations in the global demand for commodities," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 54-78.
    12. Hasenzagl, Thomas & Pellegrino, Filippo & Reichlin, Lucrezia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2017. "A Model of the Fed’s View on Inflation," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1145, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    13. Drachal, Krzysztof, 2019. "Forecasting prices of selected metals with Bayesian data-rich models," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    14. Ahmed, Rashad, 2020. "Global Flight-to-Safety Shocks," MPRA Paper 103501, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Chiappini, Raphaël & Lahet, Delphine, 2020. "Exchange rate movements in emerging economies - Global vs regional factors in Asia," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).
    16. Caldara, Dario & Cavallo, Michele & Iacoviello, Matteo, 2019. "Oil price elasticities and oil price fluctuations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C), pages 1-20.
    17. Rebeca Jiménez‐Rodríguez & Amalia Morales‐Zumaquero, 2020. "Impact of commodity prices on exchange rates in commodity‐exporting countries," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 43(7), pages 1868-1906, July.
    18. Kilian, Lutz & Zhou, Xiaoqing, 2020. "The Econometrics of Oil Market VAR Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 14460, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    19. Kruse, Robinson & Wegener, Christoph, 2020. "Time-varying persistence in real oil prices and its determinant," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 85(C).
    20. Venditti, Fabrizio & Veronese, Giovanni, 2020. "Global financial markets and oil price shocks in real time," Working Paper Series 2472, European Central Bank.
    21. Delle Chiaie, S., 2015. "The fall in oil prices in 2014: the role of supply and demand components," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 12, October..
    22. Doga Bilgin & Reinhard Ellwanger, 2017. "A Dynamic Factor Model for Commodity Prices," Staff Analytical Notes 17-12, Bank of Canada.
    23. Pilar Poncela & Eva Senra & Lya Paola Sierra, 2020. "Global vs Sectoral Factors and the Impact of the Financialization in Commodity Price Changes," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(4), pages 859-879, September.
    24. Rausser, Gordon & Stuermer, Martin, 2020. "A Dynamic Analysis of Collusive Action: The Case of the World Copper Market, 1882-2016," MPRA Paper 104708, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    25. Garratt, Anthony & Petrella, Ivan, 2019. "Commodity Prices and Inflation Risk," EMF Research Papers 23, Economic Modelling and Forecasting Group.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    co-movement; commodity prices; global demand;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • Q02 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - General - - - Commodity Market

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