Commodity Prices, Convenience Yields, and Inflation
This paper provides evidence that the two leading principal components in a panel of 23 commodity convenience yields have statistically and quantitatively important predictive power for inflation even after controlling for unemployment gap and oil prices. The results hold up in out-of-sample forecasts, across forecast horizons, and across G7 countries. The convenience yields also explain commodity prices and can be seen as informational variables about future economic conditions as conveyed by the futures markets. A bootstrap procedure for conducting inference when the principal components are used as regressors is also proposed. © 2013 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.
Volume (Year): 95 (2013)
Issue (Month): 1 (March)
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journals/ |
|Order Information:||Web: http://mitpress.mit.edu/journal-home.tcl?issn=00346535|
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:tpr:restat:v:95:y:2013:i:1:p:206-219. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Karie Kirkpatrick)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.