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What Drives Commodity Prices?

  • Shu-Ling Chen
  • John D. Jackson
  • Hyeongwoo Kim
  • Pramesti Resiandini

This paper examines common forces driving the prices of 51 highly tradable commodities. We demonstrate that highly persistent movements of these prices are mostly due to the first common component, which is closely related to the US nominal exchange rate. In particular, our simple factor-based model outperforms the random walk model in out-of-sample forecast for the US exchange rate. The second common factor and de-factored idiosyncratic components are consistent with stationarity, implying short-lived deviations from the equilibrium price dynamics. In concert, these results provide an intriguing resolution to the apparent inconsistency arising from stable markets with nonstationary prices.

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File URL: http://cla.auburn.edu/econwp/Archives/2010/2010-05.pdf
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Paper provided by Department of Economics, Auburn University in its series Auburn Economics Working Paper Series with number auwp2010-05.

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Date of creation: Oct 2010
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Handle: RePEc:abn:wpaper:auwp2010-05
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  25. Babula, Ronald A. & Ruppel, Fred J. & Bessler, David A., 1995. "U.S. corn exports: the role of the exchange rate," Agricultural Economics of Agricultural Economists, International Association of Agricultural Economists, vol. 13(2), November.
  26. Matthew T. Holt & Lee A. Craig, 2006. "Nonlinear Dynamics and Structural Change in the U.S. Hog—Corn Cycle: A Time-Varying STAR Approach," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 88(1), pages 215-233.
  27. Parsley, David C. & Wei, Shang-Jin, 2001. "Explaining the border effect: the role of exchange rate variability, shipping costs, and geography," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 87-105, October.
  28. Walter Enders & Matthew T. Holt, 2012. "Sharp Breaks or Smooth Shifts? an Investigation of the Evolution of Primary Commodity Prices," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 94(3), pages 659-673.
  29. Lo, Ming Chien & Zivot, Eric, 2001. "Threshold Cointegration And Nonlinear Adjustment To The Law Of One Price," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 5(04), pages 533-576, September.
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