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Fiscal Policy, the Real Exchange Rate, and Commodity Prices

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  • Carmen M. Reinhart

    (International Monetary Fund)

Abstract

The role of the international commodity market in transmitting disturbances is considered in a model that incorporates commodities as an input in production. The analysis employs a three-country framework: a liquidity-constrained commodity supplier and two industrial countries that import the commodity, export differentiated manufactured goods, and hold the outstanding debt of the commodity exporter. In this setting the impact of changes in fiscal policy, commodity supplies, and the real interest rate are assessed. Particular attention is paid to the responses of the real exchange rate, commodity prices, and the international distribution of debt to the various shocks.

Suggested Citation

  • Carmen M. Reinhart, 1991. "Fiscal Policy, the Real Exchange Rate, and Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(3), pages 506-524, September.
  • Handle: RePEc:pal:imfstp:v:38:y:1991:i:3:p:506-524
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. John Baffes & Cristina Savescu, 2014. "Monetary conditions and metal prices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(7), pages 447-452, May.
    2. Luis E. Arango & Fernando Arias & Adriana Flórez, 2012. "Determinants of commodity prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(2), pages 135-145, January.
    3. Luis Eduardo Arango & Ximena Chavarro & Eliana Rocío González, 2012. "Precios de bienes primarios e inflación en Colombia," Borradores de Economia 712, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    4. Hong Liang & John T. Cuddington, 2000. "Will the Emergence of the Euro Affect World Commodity Prices?," IMF Working Papers 00/208, International Monetary Fund.
    5. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1995. "Devaluation, Relative Prices, and International Trade: Evidence from Developing Countries," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 42(2), pages 290-312, June.
    6. Carmen M. Reinhart, 1991. "Fiscal Policy, the Real Exchange Rate, and Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 38(3), pages 506-524, September.
    7. Eduardo Borensztein & Carmen M. Reinhart, 1994. "The Macroeconomic Determinants of Commodity Prices," IMF Staff Papers, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 41(2), pages 236-261, June.
    8. Luis Eduardo Arango & Fernando Arias & Luz Adriana Flórez, 2008. "Trends, Fluctuations, and Determinants of Commodity Prices," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004734, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    9. Baffes,John & Haniotis,Tassos, 2016. "What explains agricultural price movements ?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7589, The World Bank.
    10. Néstor Adrián le Clech, 2013. "Determinantes del precio internacional de la soja," Economic Analysis Working Papers (2002-2010). Atlantic Review of Economics (2011-2016), Colexio de Economistas de A Coruña, Spain and Fundación Una Galicia Moderna, vol. 2, pages 1-1, December.
    11. John Baffes & Xiaoli L. Etienne, 2016. "Analysing food price trends in the context of Engel’s Law and the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 68(3), pages 688-713.
    12. René Lalonde & Zhenhua Zhu & Frédérick Demers, 2003. "Forecasting and Analyzing World Commodity Prices," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(1), pages 1-30, January-J.
    13. Webber, Anthony G, 1997. "Australian Commodity Export Pass-through and Feedback Causality from Commodity Prices to the Exchange Rate," Australian Economic Papers, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 36(68), pages 55-68, June.
    14. Baffes, John & Dennis, Allen, 2013. "Long-term drivers of food prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6455, The World Bank.
    15. John Baffes & Tassos Haniotis, 2016. "What Explains Agricultural Price Movements?," Journal of Agricultural Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 67(3), pages 706-721, September.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics
    • F42 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - International Policy Coordination and Transmission

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