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Monetary conditions and metal prices

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  • John Baffes
  • Cristina Savescu

Abstract

The monetary easing of the past few years by the world's major central banks through conventional and unconventional policies coincided with the longest and broadest commodity price boom since the Second World War. And not surprisingly, the impending normalization of monetary conditions has created expectations of a likely reversal in commodity price trends. Based on a reduced form, price-determination model which accounts for all quantifiable sectoral and macroeconomic fundamentals, this note finds that the effect of short-term interest rates on metal prices is mixed and modest. But, changes in longer term rates have a positive and highly significant impact. The note also concludes that metal prices respond (in that order) to industrial production, input prices, US dollar movements and physical stocks of metals.

Suggested Citation

  • John Baffes & Cristina Savescu, 2014. "Monetary conditions and metal prices," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(7), pages 447-452, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apeclt:v:21:y:2014:i:7:p:447-452
    DOI: 10.1080/13504851.2013.864029
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    7. Su, Chi-Wei & Wang, Xiao-Qing & Zhu, Haotian & Tao, Ran & Moldovan, Nicoleta-Claudia & Lobonţ, Oana-Ramona, 2020. "Testing for multiple bubbles in the copper price: Periodically collapsing behavior," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
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