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Trends, Fluctuations, and Determinants of Commodity Prices

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  • Luis Eduardo Arango
  • Fernando Arias
  • Luz Adriana Flórez

Abstract

A threefold analysis of commodity prices is carried out to observe their long-runbehaviour, their short-run properties and the main determinants. According to theevidence, the Prebisch-Singer hypothesis does not seem to be a property of mostprices. The cycles of commodity prices are asymmetric but contrary to the case ofeconomic activity, the longer phase corresponds to slumps. Interest rates seem tomaintain a negative relationship with commodity prices.

Suggested Citation

  • Luis Eduardo Arango & Fernando Arias & Luz Adriana Flórez, 2008. "Trends, Fluctuations, and Determinants of Commodity Prices," Borradores de Economia 4734, Banco de la Republica.
    • Handle: RePEc:col:000094:004734
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Carolina Arteaga Cabrales & Joan Camilo Granados Castro & Jair Ojeda Joya, 2011. "The Effect of Monetary Policy on Commodity Prices: Disentangling the Evidence for Individual Prices," Borradores de Economia 685, Banco de la Republica de Colombia.
    2. Apergis, Nicholas & Chatziantoniou, Ioannis & Cooray, Arusha, 2020. "Monetary policy and commodity markets: Unconventional versus conventional impact and the role of economic uncertainty," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 71(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    commodity prices; real interest rates; Prebisch-Singer hypothesis; short-run behaviour.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • O47 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Growth and Aggregate Productivity - - - Empirical Studies of Economic Growth; Aggregate Productivity; Cross-Country Output Convergence
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

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