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The Long-Run Behaviour of the Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures

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  • Otero, Jesús

Abstract

This study examines the Prebisch and Singer hypothesis using a panel of 24 commodity prices from 1900 to 2010. The modelling approach stems from the need to meet two key concerns: (1) the presence of cross-sectional dependence among commodity prices; and (2) the identification of potential structural breaks. To address these concerns, the Hadri and Rao test (2008) is employed. The findings suggest that all commodity prices exhibit a structural break at different locations across series, and that support for the Prebisch and Singer hypothesis is mixed. Once the breaks are removed from the underlying series, the persistence of commodity price shocks is shorter than that obtained in other studies using alternative methodologies.

Suggested Citation

  • Otero, Jesús, 2011. "The Long-Run Behaviour of the Terms of Trade between Primary Commodities and Manufactures," WIDER Working Paper Series 071, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
  • Handle: RePEc:unu:wpaper:wp2011-71
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    Cited by:

    1. Nazlioglu, Saban & Karul, Cagin, 2017. "A panel stationarity test with gradual structural shifts: Re-investigate the international commodity price shocks," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 181-192.
    2. Yamada, Hiroshi & Yoon, Gawon, 2014. "When Grilli and Yang meet Prebisch and Singer: Piecewise linear trends in primary commodity prices," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 193-207.

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    Keywords

    Prebisch and Singer hypothesis; panel stationarity;

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