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The Impact of Emerging Asia on Commodity Prices

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  • Calista Cheung
  • Sylvie Morin

    (Bank of Canada)

Abstract

Over the past 5 years, real energy and non-energy commodity prices have trended sharply higher. These relative price movements have had important implications for inflation and economic activity in both Canada and the rest of the world. China has accounted for the bulk of incremental demand for oil and many base metals over this period. As rapid economic growth in China has raised the level of world demand, this has put upward pressure on commodity prices. The effect has been amplified by rising resource intensities in China's production in recent years. This paper discusses the factors driving emerging Asia's demand for commodities and assesses the impact of emerging Asia on the real prices of oil and base metals in the Bank of Canada Commodity Price Index (BCPI). Two separate single-equation models are estimated for oil and the base metals price index. We employ a structural break approach for oil prices, while metals prices are modelled with an error correction model (ECM). In both cases, we find strong evidence that oil and metals prices have historically moved with the business cycle in the developed world, but that this relationship has broken down since mid-1997. Thereafter, industrial activity in emerging Asia appears to have become a more dominant driver of oil price movements. While metal price fluctuations have also become increasingly aligned with levels of industrial activity in emerging Asia, rising intensities of metal production may have been a more important factor behind the acceleration in prices in recent years.
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Suggested Citation

  • Calista Cheung & Sylvie Morin, 2007. "The Impact of Emerging Asia on Commodity Prices," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(2), pages 181-224, July-Dece.
  • Handle: RePEc:cml:moneya:v:xx:y:2007:i:2:p:181-224
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Punam Chuhan-Pole & Francisco H.G. Ferreira & Cesar Calderon & Luc Christiaensen & David Evans & Gerard Kambou & Sebastien Boreux & Vijdan Korman & Megumi Kubota & Mapi Buitano, "undated". "Africa's Pulse, April 2015," World Bank Other Operational Studies 21736, The World Bank.
    2. Feng Lu & Yuanfang Li, 2009. "China’s Factor in Recent Global Commodity Price and Shipping Freight Volatilities," Trade Working Papers 22889, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    3. Byrne, Joseph P. & Fazio, Giorgio & Fiess, Norbert, 2013. "Primary commodity prices: Co-movements, common factors and fundamentals," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(C), pages 16-26.
    4. René Morissette & Ping Ching Winnie Chan & Yuqian Lu, 2015. "Wages, Youth Employment, and School Enrollment: Recent Evidence from Increases in World Oil Prices," Journal of Human Resources, University of Wisconsin Press, vol. 50(1), pages 222-253.
    5. Luis Eduardo Arango & Fernando Arias & Luz Adriana Flórez, 2008. "Trends, Fluctuations, and Determinants of Commodity Prices," BORRADORES DE ECONOMIA 004734, BANCO DE LA REPÚBLICA.
    6. Chan, Winnie & Lu, Yuqian & Morissette, Rene, 2014. "Wages, Youth Employment, and School Enrollment: Recent Evidence from Increases in World Oil Prices," Analytical Studies Branch Research Paper Series 2014353e, Statistics Canada, Analytical Studies Branch.
    7. Olivier Gervais & Ilan Kolet, 2009. "The Outlook for the Global Supply of Oil: Running on Faith?," Discussion Papers 09-9, Bank of Canada.
    8. Mark Kruger & Kun Mo & Benjamin Sawatzky, 2016. "The Evolution of the Chinese Housing Market and Its Impact on Base Metal Prices," Discussion Papers 16-7, Bank of Canada.
    9. Fu, Xiaolan & Kaplinsky, Raphael & Zhang, Jing, 2012. "The Impact of China on Low and Middle Income Countries’ Export Prices in Industrial-Country Markets," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 40(8), pages 1483-1496.
    10. Brendan Coates & Nghi Luu, 2012. "China's emergence in global commodity markets," Economic Roundup, The Treasury, Australian Government, issue 1, pages 1-30, May.
    11. Luis E. Arango & Fernando Arias & Adriana Flórez, 2012. "Determinants of commodity prices," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 44(2), pages 135-145, January.
    12. Byrne, Joseph P & Fazio, Giorgio & Fiess, Norbert, 2010. "Optimism and commitment: An elementary theory of bargaining and war," SIRE Discussion Papers 2010-102, Scottish Institute for Research in Economics (SIRE).
    13. Olivier Gervais & Ilan Kolet & René Lalonde, 2010. "A Larger Slice of a Growing Pie: the Role of Emerging Asia in Forecasting Commodity Prices," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(1), pages 75-95, January-J.
    14. Pablo Pincheira, 2010. "A Real Time Evaluation of the Central Bank of Chile GDP Growth Forecasts," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(1), pages 37-73, January-J.
    15. Diego Bastourre, 2008. "Inversores Financieros en los Mercados de Commodities: Un Modelo con Dinámica de Ajuste no Lineal al Equilibrio," Department of Economics, Working Papers 072, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata.
    16. Dwight S. Jackson, 2010. "The Dynamics of Bank Spreads in the Jamaican Banking Sector: an Empirical Assessment," Money Affairs, Centro de Estudios Monetarios Latinoamericanos, vol. 0(1), pages 1-35, January-J.
    17. Diego Bastourre & Jorge Carrera & Javier Ibarlucia, 2010. "Commodity Prices: Structural Factors, Financial Markets and Non-Linear Dynamics," BCRA Paper Series, Central Bank of Argentina, Economic Research Department, number 06 edited by Jorge Carrera, December.
    18. Bürgi Bonanomi, Elisabeth & Elsig, Manfred & Espa, Ilaria, 2015. "The Commodity Sector and Related Governance Challenges from a Sustainable Development Perspective: The Example of Switzerland Current Research Gaps," Papers 865, World Trade Institute.
    19. René Lalonde & Philipp Maier & Dirk Muir, 2009. "Emerging Asia's Impact on Food and Oil Prices: A Model-Based Analysis," Discussion Papers 09-3, Bank of Canada.
    20. Bastourre, Diego, 2008. "Cambio fundamental o especulación financiera en los mercados de commodities? Un modelo con ajuste no lineal al equilibrio
      [Structural break or financial speculation in commodity markets? A multivar
      ," MPRA Paper 9910, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    21. Jenkins, Rhys Owen, 2011. "The "China effect" on commodity prices and Latin American export earnings," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

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