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The Spanish term structure of interest rates revisited: Cointegration with multiple structural breaks, 1974–2010

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  • Esteve, Vicente
  • Navarro-Ibáñez, Manuel
  • Prats, María A.

Abstract

In this paper we consider the possibility that a linear cointegrated regression model with multiple structural changes would provide a better empirical description of the Spanish term structure of interest rates. Our methodology is based on instability tests recently proposed in Kejriwal and Perron (2008, 2010) as well as the cointegration tests developed in Arai and Kurozumi (2007) and Kejriwal (2008). The results obtained are consistent with the existence of linear cointegration between the long and the short run Spanish interest rates. However, our empirical results also show that the cointegrating relationship has changed over time. In particular, the Kejriwal–Perron tests for testing multiple structural breaks in cointegrated regression models suggest a model of two regimes.

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  • Esteve, Vicente & Navarro-Ibáñez, Manuel & Prats, María A., 2013. "The Spanish term structure of interest rates revisited: Cointegration with multiple structural breaks, 1974–2010," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 24-34.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:reveco:v:25:y:2013:i:c:p:24-34
    DOI: 10.1016/j.iref.2012.04.007
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    1. Fernandez-Perez, Adrian & Fernández-Rodríguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simón, 2014. "The term structure of interest rates as predictor of stock returns: Evidence for the IBEX 35 during a bear market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 21-33.
    2. Erten, Irem & Okay, Nesrin, 2012. "Re-examining Turkey's trade deficit with structural breaks: Evidence from 1989-2011," MPRA Paper 56191, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Hui, Cho-Hoi & Fong, Tom Pak-Wing, 2015. "Price cointegration between sovereign CDS and currency option markets in the financial crises of 2007–2013," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 174-190.
    4. Gu, Rongbao & Chen, Xi & Li, Xinjie, 2014. "Chaos recognition and fractal analysis in the term structure of Shanghai Interbank Offered Rate," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 412(C), pages 101-112.
    5. Tronzano, Marco, 2015. "The Expectations Hypothesis of the Term Structure in Emerging Financial Markets: Some Evidence from Malaysia (1999-2015) - La struttura a termine dei tassi di interesse nei paesi emergenti: alcune evi," Economia Internazionale / International Economics, Camera di Commercio Industria Artigianato Agricoltura di Genova, vol. 68(4), pages 521-550.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Term structure of interest rates; Cointegration; Multiple structural breaks;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

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