IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/spr/series/v6y2015i2p207-245.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Fixed income strategies based on the prediction of parameters in the NS model for the Spanish public debt market

Author

Listed:
  • Julián Andrada-Félix

    ()

  • Adrian Fernandez-Perez

    ()

  • Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez

    ()

Abstract

Using different econometric models, Diebold and Li (J Econom 130:337–364, 2006 ) addressed the practical problem of forecasting the yield curve by predicting the factors level, slope and curvature in the Nelson–Siegel framework. This paper has two main aims: on the one hand, to investigate the predictive possibilities of the yield curve for the Spanish public debt market, using the methodology proposed by Diebold and Li (J Econom 130:337–364, 2006 ); and on the other hand, to study the capability of generating profits by transforming these yield curve predictions into technical trading strategies. The Sharpe ratios of our strategies outperform the hedging strategy benchmarks for long (1 year) horizons in our prediction period (2000–2010) and also for the current crisis period (2008–2010). Nevertheless, these strategies do not outperform their benchmarks for short (1 month) horizons. The introduction of non-parametric models improves the profitability of the strategies in terms of the Sharpe ratio, especially in the 1-year-ahead predictions. This finding is in line with Diebold and Li (J Econom 130:337–364, 2006 ), whose forecasts for long horizons are much more accurate than those of several standard benchmark models. Copyright The Author(s) 2015

Suggested Citation

  • Julián Andrada-Félix & Adrian Fernandez-Perez & Fernando Fernández-Rodríguez, 2015. "Fixed income strategies based on the prediction of parameters in the NS model for the Spanish public debt market," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 6(2), pages 207-245, June.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:series:v:6:y:2015:i:2:p:207-245
    DOI: 10.1007/s13209-015-0123-4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s13209-015-0123-4
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pericoli, Marcello & Taboga, Marco, 2012. "Bond risk premia, macroeconomic fundamentals and the exchange rate," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 42-65.
    2. Lange, Ronald H., 2013. "The Canadian macroeconomy and the yield curve: A dynamic latent factor approach," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 261-274.
    3. Koenker, Roger & Xiao, Zhijie, 2006. "Quantile Autoregression," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 101, pages 980-990, September.
    4. Lars E.O. Svensson, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992 - 1994," NBER Working Papers 4871, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Esteve, Vicente & Navarro-Ibáñez, Manuel & Prats, María A., 2013. "The Spanish term structure of interest rates revisited: Cointegration with multiple structural breaks, 1974–2010," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 24-34.
    6. Carlo A. Favero & Linlin Niu & Luca Sala, 2012. "Term Structure Forecasting: No‐Arbitrage Restrictions versus Large Information Set," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2), pages 124-156, March.
    7. Diaz, Antonio & Merrick, John Jr. & Navarro, Eliseo, 2006. "Spanish Treasury bond market liquidity and volatility pre- and post-European Monetary Union," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1309-1332, April.
    8. Diebold, Francis X. & Li, Canlin, 2006. "Forecasting the term structure of government bond yields," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(2), pages 337-364, February.
    9. Bessembinder, Hendrik, 2003. "Issues in assessing trade execution costs," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 233-257, May.
    10. Svensson, Lars E O, 1994. "Estimating and Interpreting Forward Interest Rates: Sweden 1992-4," CEPR Discussion Papers 1051, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    11. Fernandez-Rodriguez, Fernando & Sosvilla-Rivero, Simon & Andrada-Felix, Julian, 1999. "Exchange-rate forecasts with simultaneous nearest-neighbour methods: evidence from the EMS," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 15(4), pages 383-392, October.
    12. Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright, 2012. "Macroeconomics and the Term Structure," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(2), pages 331-367, June.
    13. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    14. Rafael B. Rezende & Mauro S. Ferreira, 2013. "Modeling and Forecasting the Yield Curve by an Extended Nelson‐Siegel Class of Models: A Quantile Autoregression Approach," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 111-123, March.
    15. Dahlquist, Magnus & Svensson, Lars E O, 1996. " Estimating the Term Structure of Interest Rates for Monetary Policy Analysis," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(2), pages 163-183, June.
    16. Marc-Gregor Czaja & Hendrik Scholz & Marco Wilkens, 2009. "Interest rate risk of German financial institutions: the impact of level, slope, and curvature of the term structure," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 33(1), pages 1-26, July.
    17. Peterson, Mark & Sirri, Erik, 2003. "Evaluation of the biases in execution cost estimation using trade and quote data," Journal of Financial Markets, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 259-280, May.
    18. Roger Koenker & Zhijie Xiao, 2004. "Unit Root Quantile Autoregression Inference," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 99, pages 775-787, January.
    19. Ricardo Gimeno & Juan M. Nave, 2006. "Genetic algorithm estimation of interest rate term structure," Working Papers 0634, Banco de España;Working Papers Homepage.
    20. Roger Koenker & Zhijie Xiao, 2002. "Inference on the Quantile Regression Process," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 70(4), pages 1583-1612, July.
    21. David Bolder & David Stréliski, 1999. "Yield Curve Modelling at the Bank of Canada," Technical Reports 84, Bank of Canada.
    22. Díaz, Antonio & González, María de la O & Navarro, Eliseo & Skinner, Frank S., 2009. "An evaluation of contingent immunization," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(10), pages 1874-1883, October.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Term structure; Fixed income; Predictions; Nelson and Siegel model; Nearest neighbours; C51; C53; G12; E43;

    JEL classification:

    • C51 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Construction and Estimation
    • C53 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Forecasting and Prediction Models; Simulation Methods
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • E43 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Interest Rates: Determination, Term Structure, and Effects

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:spr:series:v:6:y:2015:i:2:p:207-245. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Sonal Shukla) or (Mallaigh Nolan). General contact details of provider: http://www.springer.com .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.