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Genetic algorithm estimation of interest rate term structure

  • Ricardo Gimeno


    (Banco de España)

  • Juan M. Nave


    (Universidad CEU Cardenal Herrera)

The term structure of interest rates is an instrument that gives us the necessary information for valuing deterministic financial cash flows, measuring the economic market expectations and testing the effectiveness of monetary policy decisions. However, it is not directly observable and needs to be measured by smoothing data obtained from asset prices through statistical techniques. Adjusting parsimonious functional forms - as proposed by Nelson and Siegel (1987) and Svensson (1994) - is the most popular technique. This method is based on bond yields to maturity and the high degree of non linearity of the functions to be optimised make it very sensitive to the initial values employed. In this context, this paper proposes the use of genetic algorithms to find these values and reduce the risk of false convergence, showing that stable time series parameters are obtained without the need to impose any kind of restrictions.

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Paper provided by Banco de Espa�a in its series Banco de Espa�a Working Papers with number 0634.

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Length: 35 pages
Date of creation: Dec 2006
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:0634
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  1. S. Fabiani & M. Druant & I. Hernando & C. Kwapil & B. Landau & C. Loupias & F. Martins & T. Mathä & R. Sabbatini & H. Stahl & A. Stokman, 2005. "The pricing behaviour of firms in the euro area : new survey evidence," Working Paper Research 76, National Bank of Belgium.
  2. Luis J. Álvarez & Emmanuel Dhyne & Marco Hoeberichts & C. Kwapil & Hervé Le Bihan & Patrick Lünnemann & Fernando Martins & R. Sabbatini & H. Stahl & Philip Vermeulen & Jouko Vilmunen, 2006. "Sticky Prices in The Euro Area: a Summary of New Micro Evidence," Working Papers w200605, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
  3. Fung, K. C. & Garcia-Herrero, Alicia & Iizaka, Hitomi & Siu, Alan, 2005. "Hard or Soft? Institutional Reforms and Infrastructure Spending as Determinants of Foreign Direct Investment in China," Santa Cruz Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt3w23p8c8, Department of Economics, UC Santa Cruz.
  4. Arturo Galindo & Alejandro Izquierdo & José M. Montero, 2006. "Real exchange rates, dollarization and industrial employment in Latin America," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0601, Banco de Espa�a.
  5. Fabiani, Silvia & Druant, Martine & Hernando, Ignacio & Kwapil, Claudia & Landau, Bettina & Loupias, Claire & Martins, Fernando & Matha, Thomas & Sabbatini, Roberto & Stahl, Harald & Stokman, Ad, 2006. "What Firms' Surveys Tell Us about Price-Setting Behavior in the Euro Area," MPRA Paper 808, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  6. Luis J. Álvarez & Ignacio Hernando, 2005. "The price setting behaviour of Spanish firms: evidence from survey data," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0537, Banco de Espa�a.
  7. Rubén Segura-Cayuela, 2006. "Inefficient policies, inefficient institutions and trade," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0633, Banco de Espa�a.
  8. Luis J. �lvarez & Pablo Burriel & Ignacio Hernando, 2010. "Price-setting behaviour in Spain: evidence from micro PPI data," Managerial and Decision Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(2-3), pages 105-121.
  9. Juan F. Jimeno & Esther Moral & Lorena Saiz, 2006. "Structural breaks in labor productivity growth: the United States vs. the European Union," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0625, Banco de Espa�a.
  10. Josep M. Vilarrubia, 2006. "Neighborhood effects in economic growth," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0627, Banco de Espa�a.
  11. Luis J. Álvarez & Ignacio Hernando, 2006. "Competition and price adjustment in the euro area," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0629, Banco de Espa�a.
  12. Enrique Alberola & Rodrigo César Salvado, 2006. "Banks, remittances and financial deepening in receiving countries. A model," Banco de Espa�a Working Papers 0621, Banco de Espa�a.
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