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The economic effects of exogenous fiscal shocks in Spain: a SVAR approach

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  • Hernández de Cos, Pablo
  • de Castro Fernández, Francisco

Abstract

This paper estimates the effects of exogenous fiscal policy shocks in Spain in a VAR framework. Government expenditure expansionary shocks are found to have positive effects on output in the short-term at the cost of higher inflation and public deficits and lower output in the medium and long term. Tax increases are found to drag economic activity in the medium term while entailing an only temporary improvement of the public budget balance. The application of these results to the analysis of fiscal policy in Spain since the mid-nineties points to the conclusion that the consolidation process does not seem to have involved costs in terms of output growth. Moreover, the stance of fiscal policy has become more counter-cyclical in that period. JEL Classification: E62, H30

Suggested Citation

  • Hernández de Cos, Pablo & de Castro Fernández, Francisco, 2006. "The economic effects of exogenous fiscal shocks in Spain: a SVAR approach," Working Paper Series 647, European Central Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecb:ecbwps:2006647
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    Cited by:

    1. Milan Deskar-Škrbić & Hrvoje Šimović & Tomislav Ćorić, 2013. "Effects of Fiscal Policy in a Small Open Economy: Evidence of Croatia," EFZG Working Papers Series 1302, Faculty of Economics and Business, University of Zagreb.
    2. Afonso, António & Agnello, Luca & Furceri, Davide & Sousa, Ricardo M., 2011. "Assessing long-term fiscal developments: A new approach," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 130-146, February.
    3. Hrvoje Simovic & Milan Deskar-Skrbic, 2013. "Dynamic effects of fiscal policy and fiscal multipliers in Croatia," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 31(1), pages 55-78.
    4. Francesco Caprioli & Sandro Momigliano, 2011. "The effects of fiscal shocks with debt-stabilizing budgetary policies in Italy," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 839, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    5. Pérez, Javier J. & Giordano, Raffaela & Depalo, Domenico & Coutinho Pereira, Manuel & Eugène, Bruno & Papapetrou, Evangelia & Reiss, Lukas & Roter, Mojca, 2011. "The public sector pay gap in a selection of Euro area countries," Working Paper Series 1406, European Central Bank.
    6. Mihai Ioan Mutascu & Dan Constantin Danuletiu, 2011. "Taxes And Economic Growth In Romania. A Var Approach," Annales Universitatis Apulensis Series Oeconomica, Faculty of Sciences, "1 Decembrie 1918" University, Alba Iulia, vol. 1(13), pages 1-10.
    7. Henry, Jerome & Hernandez de Cos, Pablo & Momigliano, Sandro, 2008. "The impact of government budgets on prices: Evidence from macroeconometric models," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 123-143.
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    9. Werner Roeger & Jan in 't Veld, 2009. "Fiscal policy with credit constrained households," European Economy - Economic Papers 2008 - 2015 357, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.
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    11. Jorge Puig, 2014. "Multiplicador del gasto público en Argentina," Económica, Departamento de Economía, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas, Universidad Nacional de La Plata, vol. 60, pages 188-210, January-D.
    12. Raffaella Basile & Bruno Chiarini & Giovanni Luca & Elisabetta Marzano, 2016. "Fiscal multipliers and unreported production: evidence for Italy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 51(3), pages 877-896, November.
    13. Ambriško, Róbert & Babecký, Jan & Ryšánek, Jakub & Valenta, Vilém, 2015. "Assessing the impact of fiscal measures on the Czech economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 350-357.
    14. Raffaella Basile & Bruno Chiarini & Elisabetta Marzano, 2011. "Can we Rely upon Fiscal Policy Estimates in Countries with Unreported Production of 15 Per Cent (or more) of GDP?," CESifo Working Paper Series 3521, CESifo Group Munich.
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    17. Carrillo, Paul A., 2010. "“Modelo Dinámico para Análisis y Pronóstico del Producto Interno Bruto”: Un Enfoque Fiscal Aplicando un Modelo SVAR
      [Dynamic Model for Analysis and Forecast of Gross Domestic Product': A Fiscal App
      ," MPRA Paper 32005, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    18. Leif Lybecker Eskesen, 2009. "The Role for Counter-Cyclical Fiscal Policy in Singapore," IMF Working Papers 09/8, International Monetary Fund.
    19. Khalid Khan & Chen FEI & Muhammad Abdul Kamal & Badar Nadeem Ashraf, 2015. "Impact of Government Spending on Private Consumption Using ARDL Approach," Asian Economic and Financial Review, Asian Economic and Social Society, vol. 5(2), pages 239-248, February.
    20. Florian Marcel NU?A & Alina Cristina NU?A & Doini?a ARITON & Carmen Gabriela SÎRBU, 2009. "The Effects Of Fiscal-Budgetary Measures Upon Gdp, Private Consumption And Investments – A Var Analysis," EuroEconomica, Danubius University of Galati, issue 2(23), pages 84-92, december.
    21. Mthokozisi Mlilo & Umakrishnan Kollamparambi, 2016. "Fiscal policy, employment, and output in South Africa: An open economy analysis," Journal of Economic and Financial Studies (JEFS), LAR Center Press, vol. 4(3), pages 11-23, June.
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      [Macroeconomic Effects of Fiscal Policy in Ecuador 1993-2009]
      ," MPRA Paper 34436, University Library of Munich, Germany, revised Oct 2011.
    23. Seok-Kyun Hur, 2007. "Measuring the Effectiveness of Fiscal Policy in Korea," NBER Chapters,in: Fiscal Policy and Management in East Asia, NBER-EASE, Volume 16, pages 63-93 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    24. Rafael Ravnik & Ivan Zilic, 2011. "The use of SVAR analysis in determining the effects of ?scal shocks in Croatia," Financial Theory and Practice, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 35(1), pages 25-58.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal multipliers; fiscal shocks; VAR;

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • H30 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents - - - General

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