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Fiscal multipliers in turbulent times: the case of Spain

Listed author(s):
  • Pablo Hernández de Cos

    ()

    (Banco de España)

  • Enrique Moral-Benito

    ()

    (Banco de España)

What are the output responses to fiscal policy? Despite important advances reported in the literature, quantifying the size of the fiscal multiplier remains a challenge. Indeed, the quest to estimate a unique fiscal multiplier is probably an ill-posed one. The magnitude of the multiplier may well depend on country- and time-specific characteristics of the fiscal stance under scrutiny. In this paper, we estimate state-specific multipliers for Spain depending on the state of the economy in several of its dimensions. The government spending multiplier is estimated to be larger during recessions and periods of banking stress, but much smaller (or even negative) during periods of weak public finances. Combining these three dimensions into a single global turmoil indicator by the use of principal component analysis, the estimated multipliers are 1.4 for crisis (or turbulent) times and 0.6 for tranquil times

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File URL: http://www.bde.es/f/webbde/SES/Secciones/Publicaciones/PublicacionesSeriadas/DocumentosTrabajo/13/Fich/dt1309e.pdf
File Function: First version, June 2013
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Paper provided by Banco de España & Working Papers Homepage in its series Working Papers with number 1309.

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Length: 50 pages
Date of creation: Jun 2013
Handle: RePEc:bde:wpaper:1309
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