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Ten Years after the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned from the Renaissance in Fiscal Research?

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  • Valerie A. Ramey

Abstract

This paper takes stock of what we have learned from the “Renaissance” in fiscal research in the ten years since the financial crisis. I first summarize the new innovations in methodology and discuss the various strengths and weaknesses of the main approaches. Reviewing the estimates, I come to the surprising conclusion that the bulk of the estimates for average spending and tax change multipliers lie in a fairly narrow range, 0.6 to 1 for spending multipliers and -2 to -3 for tax change multipliers. However, I identify economic circumstances in which multipliers lie outside those ranges. I conclude by reviewing the debate on whether multipliers were higher on the stimulus spending in the U.S. and the fiscal consolidations in Europe.

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  • Valerie A. Ramey, 2019. "Ten Years after the Financial Crisis: What Have We Learned from the Renaissance in Fiscal Research?," NBER Working Papers 25531, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:25531
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    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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