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Rearmament to the Rescue? New Estimates of the Impact of ‘Keynesian’ Policies in 1930s’ Britain

Author Info

Listed author(s):
  • Nicholas Crafts

    ()

    (University of Warwick)

  • Terence C. Mills

    ()

    (Loughborough University)

Abstract

We report estimates of the fiscal multiplier for interwar Britain based on quarterly data, time-series econometrics, and ‘defense news’. We find that the government expenditure multiplier was in the range 0.5 to 0.8, much lower than previous estimates. The scope for a Keynesian solution to recession was much lower than is generally supposed. We do find that rearmament gave a substantial boost to real GDP after 1935 but this was because the private sector responded to news of massive future defense spending and does not imply that the multiplier effect of temporary public works programs would have been large.

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File URL: http://ehes.org/EHES_No31.pdf
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Paper provided by European Historical Economics Society (EHES) in its series Working Papers with number 0031.

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Length: 26 pages
Date of creation: Nov 2012
Handle: RePEc:hes:wpaper:0031
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.ehes.org

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Keywords: defense news; multiplier; public works; rearmament;

Other versions of this item:

Find related papers by JEL classification:
  • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
  • N14 - Economic History - - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics; Industrial Structure; Growth; Fluctuations - - - Europe: 1913-

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  1. Valerie A. Ramey, 2012. "Government Spending and Private Activity," NBER Chapters,in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 19-55 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  2. Roger Middleton, 2011. "Macroeconomic policy in Britain between the wars," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 64(3), pages 1-1, 08.
  3. Oliver Röhn, 2010. "New Evidence on the Private Saving Offset and Ricardian Equivalence," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 762, OECD Publishing.
  4. Shafik Hebous, 2011. "The Effects Of Discretionary Fiscal Policy On Macroeconomic Aggregates: A Reappraisal," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 674-707, 09.
  5. Alan J. Auerbach & Yuriy Gorodnichenko, 2012. "Fiscal Multipliers in Recession and Expansion," NBER Chapters,in: Fiscal Policy after the Financial Crisis, pages 63-98 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  6. Bowden, S. & Higgins, D.M. & Price, C., 2006. "A very peculiar practice: Underemployment in Britain during the interwar years," European Review of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 10(01), pages 89-108, April.
  7. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2012. "Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated US Tax Policy Shocks," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 145-181, May.
  8. Mitchell, James & Solomou, Solomos & Weale, Martin, 2012. "Monthly GDP estimates for inter-war Britain," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 49(4), pages 543-556.
  9. Boyer, George R. & Hatton, Timothy J., 2002. "New Estimates Of British Unemployment, 1870 1913," The Journal of Economic History, Cambridge University Press, vol. 62(03), pages 643-675, September.
  10. Lawrence Christiano & Martin Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo, 2011. "When Is the Government Spending Multiplier Large?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 78-121.
  11. Roberto Perotti, 1999. "Fiscal Policy in Good Times and Bad," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 114(4), pages 1399-1436.
  12. Crafts, Nicholas, 2012. "UK Defence News, 1920-1938: Estimates Based on Contemporary Sources," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 104, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
  13. Chadha, Jagjit S & Dimsdale, Nicholas H, 1999. "A Long View of Real Rates," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 15(2), pages 17-45, Summer.
  14. Chambers, David, 2010. "Going public in interwar Britain," Financial History Review, Cambridge University Press, vol. 17(01), pages 51-71, April.
  15. Karel Mertens & Morten O. Ravn, 2012. "Empirical Evidence on the Aggregate Effects of Anticipated and Unanticipated US Tax Policy Shocks," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 4(2), pages 145-181, May.
  16. Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
  17. Ilzetzki, Ethan & Mendoza, Enrique G. & Végh, Carlos A., 2013. "How big (small?) are fiscal multipliers?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(2), pages 239-254.
  18. Roger Middleton, 2010. "British monetary and fiscal policy in the 1930s," Oxford Review of Economic Policy, Oxford University Press, vol. 26(3), pages 414-441, Autumn.
  19. Dimsdale, Nicholas H & Horsewood, Nicholas, 1995. "Fiscal Policy and Employment in Interwar Britain: Some Evidence from a New Model," Oxford Economic Papers, Oxford University Press, vol. 47(3), pages 369-396, July.
  20. Valerie A. Ramey, 2011. "Can Government Purchases Stimulate the Economy?," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 49(3), pages 673-685, September.
  21. Robert J. Barro & Charles J. Redlick, 2011. "Macroeconomic Effects From Government Purchases and Taxes," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 126(1), pages 51-102.
  22. Mark Thomas, 1983. "Rearmament and Economic Recovery in the late 1930S," Economic History Review, Economic History Society, vol. 36(4), pages 552-579, November.
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Cited by:

  1. repec:eee:dyncon:v:78:y:2017:i:c:p:54-87 is not listed on IDEAS
  2. Nicholas Crafts, 2013. "Returning to Growth: Policy Lessons from History," Fiscal Studies, Institute for Fiscal Studies, vol. 34(2), pages 255-282, 06.
  3. Crafts, Nicholas, 2012. "UK Defence News, 1920-1938: Estimates Based on Contemporary Sources," CAGE Online Working Paper Series 104, Competitive Advantage in the Global Economy (CAGE).
  4. Sebastian Gechert & Ansgar Rannenberg, 2014. "Are Fiscal Multipliers Regime-Dependent? A Meta Regression Analysis," IMK Working Paper 139-2014, IMK at the Hans Boeckler Foundation, Macroeconomic Policy Institute.
  5. Barry Eichengreen, 2016. "The Great Depression in a Modern Mirror," De Economist, Springer, vol. 164(1), pages 1-17, March.
  6. Shibamoto, Masahiko & Shizume, Masato, 2014. "Exchange rate adjustment, monetary policy and fiscal stimulus in Japan's escape from the Great Depression," Explorations in Economic History, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 1-18.
  7. George Chouliarakis & Tadeusz Gwiazdowski & Sophia Lazaretou, 2016. "The Effect of Fiscal Policy on Output in Times of Crisis and Prosperity: Historical Evidence From Greece ," Centre for Growth and Business Cycle Research Discussion Paper Series 230, Economics, The Univeristy of Manchester.

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