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Government Spending Multipliers Under the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan

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  • Wataru Miyamoto
  • Thuy Lan Nguyen
  • Dmitriy Sergeyev

Abstract

Using a rich data set on government spending forecasts in Japan, we provide new evidence on the effects of unexpected changes in government spending when the nominal interest rate is near the zero lower bound (ZLB). The on-impact output multiplier is 1.5 in the ZLB period, and 0.6 outside of it. We estimate that government spending shocks increase both private consumption and investment during the ZLB period but crowd them out in the normal period. There is evidence that expected inflation increases by more in the ZLB period than in the normal period.

Suggested Citation

  • Wataru Miyamoto & Thuy Lan Nguyen & Dmitriy Sergeyev, 2017. "Government Spending Multipliers Under the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan," Staff Working Papers 17-40, Bank of Canada.
    • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:17-40
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Economic models; Fiscal Policy;

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit

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