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Exiting from QE

  • Fumio Hayashi
  • Junko Koeda

We develop a regime-switching SVAR (structural vector autoregression) in which the monetary policy regime, chosen by the central bank responding to economic conditions, is endogenous and observable. There are two regimes, one of which is QE (quantitative easing). The model can incorporate the exit condition for terminating QE. We then apply the model to Japan, a country that has accumulated, by our count, 130 months of QE as of December 2012. Our impulse response and counter-factual analyses yield two findings about QE. First, an increase in reserves raises inflation and output. Second, terminating QE can be expansionary.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 19938.

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Date of creation: Feb 2014
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19938
Note: ME
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