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Exiting from QE

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  • Fumio Hayashi
  • Junko Koeda

Abstract

We develop a regime-switching SVAR (structural vector autoregression) in which the monetary policy regime, chosen by the central bank responding to economic conditions, is endogenous and observable. There are two regimes, one of which is QE (quantitative easing). The model can incorporate the exit condition for terminating QE. We then apply the model to Japan, a country that has accumulated, by our count, 130 months of QE as of December 2012. Our impulse response and counter-factual analyses yield two findings about QE. First, an increase in reserves raises inflation and output. Second, terminating QE can be expansionary.

Suggested Citation

  • Fumio Hayashi & Junko Koeda, 2014. "Exiting from QE," NBER Working Papers 19938, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:19938
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    Cited by:

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    2. Michaelis, Henrike & Watzka, Sebastian, 2017. "Are there differences in the effectiveness of quantitative easing at the zero-lower-bound in Japan over time?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 204-233.
    3. Wataru Miyamoto & Thuy Lan Nguyen & Dmitriy Sergeyev, 2018. "Government Spending Multipliers under the Zero Lower Bound: Evidence from Japan," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(3), pages 247-277, July.
    4. Ichiro Fukunaga & Naoya Kato & Junko Koeda, 2015. "Maturity Structure and Supply Factors in Japanese Government Bond Markets," Monetary and Economic Studies, Institute for Monetary and Economic Studies, Bank of Japan, vol. 33, pages 45-96, November.
    5. Ben Charoenwong & Randall Morck & Yupana Wiwattanakantang, 2019. "Bank of Japan Equity Purchases: The (Non-)Effects of Extreme Quantitative Easing," NBER Working Papers 25525, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Michaelis, Henrike & Watzka, Sebastian, 2014. "Are there Differences in the Effectiveness of Quantitative Easing in Japan over Time?," Discussion Papers in Economics 21087, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
    7. Kansho Piotr Otsubo, 2018. "The Effects of Fiscal and Monetary Policies in Japan: What Combination of Policies Should Be Used?," Journal of International Commerce, Economics and Policy (JICEP), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 9(01n02), pages 1-25, February.
    8. Hirose, Yasuo, 2020. "An Estimated Dsge Model With A Deflation Steady State," Macroeconomic Dynamics, Cambridge University Press, vol. 24(5), pages 1151-1185, July.
    9. Fumio Hayashi, 2019. "Peril of the Inflation Exit Condition," The Japanese Economic Review, Springer, vol. 70(1), pages 4-27, March.
    10. Junko Koeda, 2017. "Bond Supply and Excess Bond Returns in Zero-Lower Bound and Normal Environments: Evidence from Japan," The Japanese Economic Review, Japanese Economic Association, vol. 68(4), pages 443-457, December.
    11. Kiyotaka Nakashima & Masahiko Shibamoto & Koji Takahashi, 2017. "Identifying Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks," Discussion Paper Series DP2017-05, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Apr 2017.
    12. Koeda, Junko, 2019. "Macroeconomic effects of quantitative and qualitative monetary easing measures," Journal of the Japanese and International Economies, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 121-141.
    13. Shah, Imran Hussain & Schmidt-Fischer, Francesca & Malki, Issam & Hatfield, Richard, 2019. "A structural break approach to analysing the impact of the QE portfolio balance channel on the US stock market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 204-220.

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    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy

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