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Source of Underestimation of the Monetary Policy Effect: Re-examination of the Policy Effectiveness in Japan's 1990s

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  • Masahiko Shibamoto

    (Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration (RIEB), Kobe University, Japan)

Abstract

This paper re-examines the empirical evidence on the potency of Japanese monetary policy in the 1990s by comparing the estimated impacts of various proxies of monetary policy shocks on the macro economy. My empirical results demonstrate that the surprise target changes as a proxy of monetary policy shocks had impacts on real output and financial variables over the period 1990–2001. I also show that the estimated effects of identified monetary policy shocks depend on whether the shocks are anticipated or not; The monetary policy effects on the economy are underestimated when the empirical models fail to control for the market expectation for monetary policy stance.

Suggested Citation

  • Masahiko Shibamoto, 2014. "Source of Underestimation of the Monetary Policy Effect: Re-examination of the Policy Effectiveness in Japan's 1990s," Discussion Paper Series DP2014-10, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    • Handle: RePEc:kob:dpaper:dp2014-10
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    Cited by:

    1. Kiyotaka Nakashima & Masahiko Shibamoto & Koji Takahashi, 2017. "Identifying Unconventional Monetary Policy Shocks," Discussion Paper Series DP2017-05, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University, revised Apr 2017.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary policy; Surprise target changes; Vector autoregression model; Japan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

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