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The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks

Author

Listed:
  • Silvia Miranda-Agrippino

    () (Bank of England
    Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM))

  • Giovanni Ricco

    () (Department of Economics University of Warwick)

Abstract

Despite years of research, there is still uncertainty around the effects of monetary policy shocks. We reassess the empirical evidence by combining a new identification that accounts for informational rigidities, with a flexible econometric method robust to misspecifications that bridges between VARs and Local Projections. We show that most of the lack of robustness of the results in the extant literature is due to compounding unrealistic assumptions of full information with the use of severely misspecified models. Using our novel methodology, we find that a monetary tightening is unequivocally contractionary, with no evidence of either price or output puzzles.

Suggested Citation

  • Silvia Miranda-Agrippino & Giovanni Ricco, 2015. "The Transmission of Monetary Policy Shocks," Discussion Papers 1711, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Feb 2017.
  • Handle: RePEc:cfm:wpaper:1711
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. repec:oup:jeurec:v:15:y:2017:i:4:p:721-745. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Miranda-Agrippino, Silvia & Ricco, Giovanni, 2018. "Bayesian Vector Autoregressions," The Warwick Economics Research Paper Series (TWERPS) 1159, University of Warwick, Department of Economics.
    3. Silvia Miranda-Agrippino, 2015. "Unsurprising Shocks: Information, Premia, and the Monetary Transmission," Discussion Papers 1613, Centre for Macroeconomics (CFM), revised Apr 2016.
    4. Paul Hubert & Becky Maule, 2016. "Policy and Macro Signals as Inputs to Inflation Expectation Formation," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2016-02, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    5. Elena Gerko & Hélène Rey, 2017. "Monetary Policy in the Capitals of Capital," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 15(4), pages 721-745.
    6. Benjamin Garcia & Arsenios Skaperdas, "undated". "Inferring the Shadow Rate from Real Activity," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-106, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (US).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Monetary Policy; Local Projections; VARs; Expectations; Information Rigidity; Survey Forecasts; External Instruments;

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading

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