IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/aea/aejmac/v11y2019i1p157-92.html

Monetary Policy, Real Activity, and Credit Spreads: Evidence from Bayesian Proxy SVARs

Author

Listed:
  • Dario Caldara
  • Edward Herbst

Abstract

In this paper we develop a Bayesian framework to estimate a proxy structural vector autoregression to identify monetary policy shocks. We find that during the Great Moderation period, monetary policy shocks induce a persistent decline in real activity and tightening in financial conditions. Central to this result is a systematic component of monetary policy characterized by a direct and economically significant reaction to changes in corporate credit spreads. The failure to account for this endogenous reaction induces an attenuation in the response of all variables to monetary shocks, a result that also applies to the narrative identification of Romer and Romer (2004).

Suggested Citation

  • Dario Caldara & Edward Herbst, 2019. "Monetary Policy, Real Activity, and Credit Spreads: Evidence from Bayesian Proxy SVARs," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(1), pages 157-192, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:11:y:2019:i:1:p:157-92
    Note: DOI: 10.1257/mac.20170294
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/doi/10.1257/mac.20170294
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/attachments?retrieve=vDRL0sUCjXJBiHBXXy33MItZUkfN6wzS
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/attachments?retrieve=o8-iNUWl4xCdkTiQUuY4GRfGgvGGYl3N
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://www.aeaweb.org/articles/attachments?retrieve=dq4Pn90lDBfKUig9snEdGBrWknZJui-q
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to AEA members and institutional subscribers.
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E23 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Production
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • E44 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Financial Markets and the Macroeconomy
    • E52 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Monetary Policy
    • E58 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit - - - Central Banks and Their Policies

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:aea:aejmac:v:11:y:2019:i:1:p:157-92. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    We have no bibliographic references for this item. You can help adding them by using this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Michael P. Albert (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/aeaaaea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.